Tsunamiconomics! - Stupidity or Conspiracy?

TSUNAMICONOMICS - Stupidity or Conspiracy?

Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar

Who doesn't remember the carnage wrought by nature as the rest of the world basked in the afterglow of Christmas? Unlike the criminal indifference that accompanied the Bosnian massacres, the entire world responded with aid for tsunami victims. While much of that aid has been distributed, some has been directed toward constructing a tsunami warning system. My worry however, is that, as well-meaning as it is, the tsunami warning system may fall short, and is certainly not the best way to combat the risk from tsunamis.

First, tsunamis travel at great speeds, necessitating speedy detection and response. Even if tsunami detectors are placed many miles offshore of the coast at risk, that still leaves too little time for the authorities to broadcast it and enable the coastal population to seek higher ground. (I have my suspicions and doubts about the detection technology but defer it to experts and conspiracy theorists). A disaster looms on the hapless should the tsunami detectors fail, or there be any other delay even of a minute. It'd be far superior from both the risk and the monetary perspective to announce earthquakes immediately on detection at 'tsunami receiving' locations. Earthquakes are detected almost instantaneously. One does not need to wait till the tsunami waves travel across the high seas to meet and activate the detectors. Second, their epicenter is detected much earlier, permitting oceanographers to pinpoint areas under threat of tsunami. (For example, Chennai would monitor earthquakes occurring along the Andamans and Java Sumatra chain of islands) Would it not be easy to take an over-riding radio-feed from the earthquake center so that a tsunami warning is broadcast automatically over the radio to coastal residents every time there is an earthquake of more than a threshold magnitude? One could even 'code' the warning tone (from gentle to shrill) to reflect both the magnitude and proximity (and angle) of the epicenter so residents don't panic over low magnitude earthquakes.

Now look at the costs and benefits. The earthquake detection system is already in place, operational globally and monitors all regions, including tsunami-generating hot spots. The cost of buying in to the earthquake warning system is likely several magnitudes lower than the cost of ordering tsunami detectors, placing them in the high seas, and monitoring them regularly. From the benefit perspective too, the earlier detection of tsunami-causing earthquakes and, consequently, earlier evacuation of the population at risk, by the earthquake-warning system translates to more lives saved. In other words, the EWS has lower costs and higher benefits than the elaborate tsunami warning network envisaged by specialists. Some may claim that this is not unlike closing the stable gates after the horse has bolted. After all, the orders for tsunami equipment have been placed and the same are being installed. But, will they achieve their purpose?

God forbid, we wait until the next big one to find out!