Environmental Progress thru Competition!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Lok Sabha TV is a pleasant surprise. Yeah, they telecast some sessions of the Lower House, but it is far more than a peek in to the hell-house that we elect our representatives in to. And I don't just mean the cultural presentations. Late night this week, I happened to switch in to the Principal Advisor of the Planning Commission, Suresh Sethi, discussing energy policy matters on the channel. For once, I did not switch to the F channel. Believe me, my right hand almost twitched!
Much of what he said was, for want of a better word, relevant, and though I did not see his way at many points along his talk, one sentence caught my attention. Mr Sethi said, and I quote (though not verbatim) “Competition (among producers) will enhance the environmental performance of our industry”. Well, I fervently hope so. Because my training in micro-economics and energy economics suggests an entirely different outcome. So different that I thought it would be a great to elucidate my suspicions in my blog.
An industry's environmental performance is typically measured in the three media – air, water and land - and in indoor and outdoor spheres. Outdoor pollution is regulated by various state and central pollution control authorities while indoor exposure, to the best of my knowledge, is covered under occupational exposure and hazards regulations. Competition needs no definition. It pits the fortunes of one firm against another within an industry, sometimes across political boundaries. The virtues of competition are familiar. Competition among producers stimulates the incentive to innovate and lower costs as a means to undercut competitors. Larger market share translates to larger profits, (and for those executives with stock options, higher stock prices). By the same token, competition is, at least superficially, friendly to consumers who benefit from lower prices and choice. All hunky dory. Right?
Wrong! Competition is also a fight for survival (though, I suspect our bureaucrats and regulators will never permit annihilation of any firm of any significant size). The fight for survival engenders various competitive and anti-competitive strategies - from advertisements, product differentiation by branding, positioning in niche markets, pricing wars, to monopolistic and switching regimes strategies and more. It may be that competition in service industries begets practices that are considered internationally acceptable, thus enabling domestic firms to reach out to the international client̬le for their business. But competition in basic industries is not the same as competition in the IT industry. Consider the iron and steel industry. It is entirely raw-material intensive. From applying for environmental clearance, environmentally sustainable mining, transportation, to benefication, refining and pollution control Рevery step is resource-intensive. In other words, it costs money. Money reflected in the bottom-line of the quarterly report submitted to SEBI that drives many an investor frenzy. Despite the scale of production, pollution control costs are a significant fraction of total variable cost. Introduce competition in these industries and what happens is that the firm at once seeks to further lower its cost of production (wary as it is of its competitor's richer ores or closer mines). It seeks lower-priced raw material inputs, higher labor productivity, ...., and to cut corners environmentally. If its hands are tied with regard to iron ore and coal supply (gotta apply for fresh licenses and 'linkages' from the Steel and Mines Ministry), and the labor union leader has a permanent scowl on his face (who could those guys on motorbikes waiting outside the factory gate be?), then can one be sure that all pollution control procedures were followed? (Why, the workman assigned to that task took paternity leave!) When the going gets tough in the market, the squeeze is inevitably on activities that do not add to the bottom line of the firm. Is it then any wonder that firms under competitive pressures are hard-put to abide by the resource-draining environmental obligations? I half-suspect environment regulators and the commerce ministry officials are all-to-ready to look the other way if the firm's management is smart enough to suggest production cut-backs or 'labor-shedding'. And the Competition Committee would not look kindly about plant closures either! (And need I say anything about where the bull-runners stand?)
Pray what chance the environment has under these extremely 'competitive' times?
Come my friend, compete with me
Times are tough, input prices rising
The unions seek more, always
Where else do we cut corners
but of course environmentally
(The Minister did attend our luncheon
And did we not pay in to the Rehabilitation Fund?)
Times are tough, the market's rising
Oh no!, our shorts have failed
Who'd have anticipated
a government so friendly overnight!
Not a pie have we to spare
Where are the margins to justify
pollution treatment beyond the cursory?
Yes, our waste-water is clarified
(it sort of pooled up in the ditch)
Besides, the village well is more polluted!
(Hydrologist? No, we have none!)
Be ever my competitor,
but do complain 'bout competition
Yes, it is the bane of this industry
Compete, lest the consumers complain
Compete, lest they break me up!
(Standard Oil? Sounds familiar!)
Compete, so the Competition Committee may survive
(We need them too, you do understand?)
Times are tough, do me a favor
Compete with me, won't you my friend?
I'll return the favor and compete with you,
all of next year, infact for ever!
Let's compete and aid the Planning Commission in nation-building
Let's compete to realise their version of environmental utopia!
Friday, December 28, 2007
Thursday, December 20, 2007
Zip, Zap, Suuueee me!
Zip, Zap, Suuuuee me!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com
Euro vehicle pollution standards and lead-free gasoline are so much in the news that one can't be faulted to presume the air is getting cleaner around us. But wait before you breathe too deeply! Would you care to walk out of your thickly curtained air-conditioned bungalow? At around 8:30-9 am on a cold morning to be precise. That's when the neighbor revs up his two-stroke scooter releasing a white plume. Now who would protest refreshing some benzene and carbon-monoxide to accompany your cuppa chai?! Join me as we find our way to work through the potholes and the braving the death-defying motoring strategies of the two- and three-wheelers. What's that smell? It can't be....thankfully, it isn't. It's only the foul smell from the rickety diesel-guzzling lorry in front of you. Defying all laws of physics, it seems to exist merely to spout soot and other toxics in to your lungs. Pardon me, how is diesel subsidized? By the age of the vehicle and the inefficiency of its engine? I zip past it only to find the light changing at the intersection. At this distance in the turning lane, it will be the third cycle before I get through. Just as I notice how environmentally competitive our sedans have turned over the years, I notice the phat phatees, those hybrids that seem like scaled-up autos or ultra-mini vans. These were endemic to North India. How and why they migrated to the South is a mystery, perhaps even a conspiracy. So clean in their first few months of introduction, I was half-deceived in to endorsing them. After all, they did take the pressure off the public buses. As time wore by, some of them have turned true rivals of their more polluting cousins on the road. Very likely, vehicle inspection is many months away; besides, all it takes is a tweak of the valve and a few notes in the hands of the middle-man.
Ahh, there's the free stretch of road. Shall I turn the window down for some fresh air? Let me, just a .....What's tha...? Black smoke in my face. Where did that come from? Oh, an SUV. Those macho, muscular 4x4s that were designed for pure pleasure .... to the owner. Why care for those pedestrians in the rear view mirror, black-faced, and gassed out as they are likely to be! And why is the bus overtaking me? Did I say the lorries were dirty? My God, that was nothing, compared to these buses. Rivaling the lorries in age and crowded with subsidized passengers beyond all human limits, these paleolithic buses fulfill their environmental duty unswervingly, everyday – distributing sooty exhaust throughout the urban limits and even into suburbs (Gotta hang on to the bus for dear life and breathe smoke and dust to qualify for HRA at Class I city rate!). With extended hours, they ensure that even the early morning walker is not spared his fresh breath of air! Lorries, buses, phat-phatees and SUVs. Does that cover the whole ambit of polluting vehicles? You didn't forget vans did you? So convenient, and yet, so polluting. The very van that picks and drops your child to and from school also pollutes the road, even your living room. That's the irony of India. To obtain convenience, one must sacrifice health. In the long run, it may not even qualify as a zero sum game!
Come January, new rules are likely to be enforced and the existing ones applied to more cities and towns. Does that herald cleaner air? Despite the government's claims, No. Very likely, the increase in emissions from the entry of new vehicles (Remember, the UTI Auto fund must make money?) will swamp any reduction in emissions from the existing fleet. More vehicles on the road also means more congestion and more time idling at the intersection. That should reduce emissions some. Not! As for the vans, as much I might hate its exhaust, the fact that they are safer than three-wheeled autorickshaws, only portends to their more widespread use, both in the urbs and suburbs. And with many of us 'upgrading' to, or adding an SUV to declare our income to Aayakar Bhavan, the air isn't going to get cleaner, any time soon, claims to the contrary notwithstanding. So, if you are one of those old-timers waiting for fresh cool summer breeze or a cold blast of fresh wintery air for your walk, I have news for you.
Don't wait for packaged Alaskan air!
To pollute is my birth right
To protest not yours
Be a patriot, look away and ignore,
any transgressions of the commons
Remember, a developing nation are we,
can't put on the airs of the developed
We must lay to waste this air, water and land
to reduce cost this generation
(Why, the lung is a regenerable organ!)
so we may make money cleaning up in the next (or the one after)
Those are the lessons of Indian capitalism,
learn it, forgive it, live it!
(psst: Tried Johny Walker with Kurkure? Kya majha aata hai bhai!)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com
Euro vehicle pollution standards and lead-free gasoline are so much in the news that one can't be faulted to presume the air is getting cleaner around us. But wait before you breathe too deeply! Would you care to walk out of your thickly curtained air-conditioned bungalow? At around 8:30-9 am on a cold morning to be precise. That's when the neighbor revs up his two-stroke scooter releasing a white plume. Now who would protest refreshing some benzene and carbon-monoxide to accompany your cuppa chai?! Join me as we find our way to work through the potholes and the braving the death-defying motoring strategies of the two- and three-wheelers. What's that smell? It can't be....thankfully, it isn't. It's only the foul smell from the rickety diesel-guzzling lorry in front of you. Defying all laws of physics, it seems to exist merely to spout soot and other toxics in to your lungs. Pardon me, how is diesel subsidized? By the age of the vehicle and the inefficiency of its engine? I zip past it only to find the light changing at the intersection. At this distance in the turning lane, it will be the third cycle before I get through. Just as I notice how environmentally competitive our sedans have turned over the years, I notice the phat phatees, those hybrids that seem like scaled-up autos or ultra-mini vans. These were endemic to North India. How and why they migrated to the South is a mystery, perhaps even a conspiracy. So clean in their first few months of introduction, I was half-deceived in to endorsing them. After all, they did take the pressure off the public buses. As time wore by, some of them have turned true rivals of their more polluting cousins on the road. Very likely, vehicle inspection is many months away; besides, all it takes is a tweak of the valve and a few notes in the hands of the middle-man.
Ahh, there's the free stretch of road. Shall I turn the window down for some fresh air? Let me, just a .....What's tha...? Black smoke in my face. Where did that come from? Oh, an SUV. Those macho, muscular 4x4s that were designed for pure pleasure .... to the owner. Why care for those pedestrians in the rear view mirror, black-faced, and gassed out as they are likely to be! And why is the bus overtaking me? Did I say the lorries were dirty? My God, that was nothing, compared to these buses. Rivaling the lorries in age and crowded with subsidized passengers beyond all human limits, these paleolithic buses fulfill their environmental duty unswervingly, everyday – distributing sooty exhaust throughout the urban limits and even into suburbs (Gotta hang on to the bus for dear life and breathe smoke and dust to qualify for HRA at Class I city rate!). With extended hours, they ensure that even the early morning walker is not spared his fresh breath of air! Lorries, buses, phat-phatees and SUVs. Does that cover the whole ambit of polluting vehicles? You didn't forget vans did you? So convenient, and yet, so polluting. The very van that picks and drops your child to and from school also pollutes the road, even your living room. That's the irony of India. To obtain convenience, one must sacrifice health. In the long run, it may not even qualify as a zero sum game!
Come January, new rules are likely to be enforced and the existing ones applied to more cities and towns. Does that herald cleaner air? Despite the government's claims, No. Very likely, the increase in emissions from the entry of new vehicles (Remember, the UTI Auto fund must make money?) will swamp any reduction in emissions from the existing fleet. More vehicles on the road also means more congestion and more time idling at the intersection. That should reduce emissions some. Not! As for the vans, as much I might hate its exhaust, the fact that they are safer than three-wheeled autorickshaws, only portends to their more widespread use, both in the urbs and suburbs. And with many of us 'upgrading' to, or adding an SUV to declare our income to Aayakar Bhavan, the air isn't going to get cleaner, any time soon, claims to the contrary notwithstanding. So, if you are one of those old-timers waiting for fresh cool summer breeze or a cold blast of fresh wintery air for your walk, I have news for you.
Don't wait for packaged Alaskan air!
To pollute is my birth right
To protest not yours
Be a patriot, look away and ignore,
any transgressions of the commons
Remember, a developing nation are we,
can't put on the airs of the developed
We must lay to waste this air, water and land
to reduce cost this generation
(Why, the lung is a regenerable organ!)
so we may make money cleaning up in the next (or the one after)
Those are the lessons of Indian capitalism,
learn it, forgive it, live it!
(psst: Tried Johny Walker with Kurkure? Kya majha aata hai bhai!)
Holy Smokes!
Holy Smokes!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
We Chennaites, conservatives and 'traditionalists' to the bone, may have adapted to rap tamil songs to accompany the annual Carnatic music festival, but when it comes to January, reading The Hindu while the cup of decoction coffee is still piping hot is still the 'in thing'. And January brings with it, besides the shrill religious music that interrupts many a tender moments, another traditional festival, Bhogi, the precursor to Pongal, the harvest festival. My ardent love for religion and Hinduism is quite well known. For the same reason, I generally stay clear of religious matters. But this one deserves attention. Over the years, the growing wealth among Indian families has been ostentatiously displayed in many ways including, unfortunately, overt displays of fireworks and the like. Come festival time - and the trend is to celebrate any and all festivals, election victories, five day match victory, ODI victory, Ganguly sixers and Kumble lbws - we are inundated by a mad cacophony of sound and light that serves no purpose than boost the ego of those lighting it. Why I even suspect an informal 'mafia ring' that goes around the localities handing out its 'evaluation' of whether households have spent enough on festival purchases. The more sound and light, and the more firecracker waste strewn around on the streets, the higher you are on their informal ladder of respect (and safety?) !
And whatever festival garbage remains on the streets despite the best efforts of the Corporation (Hey, we are entitled to our lighter moments!), is fuel for the traditional Bhogi fire. Diwali waste, garden waste, sweet boxes, styrofoam packings, plastic wrappings, you name it, the Bhogi fire consumes all. The 'holy smoke' from garbage burning mingles with the fog on the windless Bhogi morning made ever more dreary by the occluded sun to create something uniquely south-indian, the infamous 'Bhogi smog'. How divinely dangerous (and not just to the planes flying with reduced visibility)! Just when you thought your soot and cold-start benzene-exposed lungs could not be damaged more, what have you but the most toxic mix of pollutants in the air to herald the new year. (I guess, it's an early hurdle test. If one is to die from lung disease later in the year, he might as well die before the good times of harvest!).
Time was when nobody noticed but the asthmatics, the environmentalists, and of course, the garbage collectors. Today, environmentalists, meteorologists and pollution experts are ready with satellite readings and GIS software to monitor the direction of the dioxin plume. (I believe there is a way, at least informally, to exploit these trans-boundary transgressions monetarily. I fervently hope that it turns formal and hurts palpably) One also hopes, with so many TV channels, FM and AM stations around blaring public service messages, and the free TVs that were distributed with great fanfare, that the message pervades to all parts of the society, especially down to those elements who light fires with gay abandon. But then, what are the chances they 'd listen? So what does that leave us with? Another, 'I-told-you-so' fiasco? If you ask me, I'd have the mayor fund an annual campaign that doubles or triples the price of (unrecyclable) plastic (and other toxic) waste at recycle marts between Diwali and Bhogi. That would entice the waste-mongers to scrounge for plastic on streets and turn them in for their meal. And we might save a life or two, a few cancers and innumerable visits to the emergency room by asthmatics. You don't suppose the health and life insurance firms want to pitch in???
Shall we burn our waste early
and claim to avoid the Bhogi smog?
Shall we source segregate it
so urchins may light 'plastic only' fires?
Shall we hoard plastic for Bhogi day
knowing it'd fetch a price so high?
Shall we instead walk away
turning the proverbial blind eye?
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
We Chennaites, conservatives and 'traditionalists' to the bone, may have adapted to rap tamil songs to accompany the annual Carnatic music festival, but when it comes to January, reading The Hindu while the cup of decoction coffee is still piping hot is still the 'in thing'. And January brings with it, besides the shrill religious music that interrupts many a tender moments, another traditional festival, Bhogi, the precursor to Pongal, the harvest festival. My ardent love for religion and Hinduism is quite well known. For the same reason, I generally stay clear of religious matters. But this one deserves attention. Over the years, the growing wealth among Indian families has been ostentatiously displayed in many ways including, unfortunately, overt displays of fireworks and the like. Come festival time - and the trend is to celebrate any and all festivals, election victories, five day match victory, ODI victory, Ganguly sixers and Kumble lbws - we are inundated by a mad cacophony of sound and light that serves no purpose than boost the ego of those lighting it. Why I even suspect an informal 'mafia ring' that goes around the localities handing out its 'evaluation' of whether households have spent enough on festival purchases. The more sound and light, and the more firecracker waste strewn around on the streets, the higher you are on their informal ladder of respect (and safety?) !
And whatever festival garbage remains on the streets despite the best efforts of the Corporation (Hey, we are entitled to our lighter moments!), is fuel for the traditional Bhogi fire. Diwali waste, garden waste, sweet boxes, styrofoam packings, plastic wrappings, you name it, the Bhogi fire consumes all. The 'holy smoke' from garbage burning mingles with the fog on the windless Bhogi morning made ever more dreary by the occluded sun to create something uniquely south-indian, the infamous 'Bhogi smog'. How divinely dangerous (and not just to the planes flying with reduced visibility)! Just when you thought your soot and cold-start benzene-exposed lungs could not be damaged more, what have you but the most toxic mix of pollutants in the air to herald the new year. (I guess, it's an early hurdle test. If one is to die from lung disease later in the year, he might as well die before the good times of harvest!).
Time was when nobody noticed but the asthmatics, the environmentalists, and of course, the garbage collectors. Today, environmentalists, meteorologists and pollution experts are ready with satellite readings and GIS software to monitor the direction of the dioxin plume. (I believe there is a way, at least informally, to exploit these trans-boundary transgressions monetarily. I fervently hope that it turns formal and hurts palpably) One also hopes, with so many TV channels, FM and AM stations around blaring public service messages, and the free TVs that were distributed with great fanfare, that the message pervades to all parts of the society, especially down to those elements who light fires with gay abandon. But then, what are the chances they 'd listen? So what does that leave us with? Another, 'I-told-you-so' fiasco? If you ask me, I'd have the mayor fund an annual campaign that doubles or triples the price of (unrecyclable) plastic (and other toxic) waste at recycle marts between Diwali and Bhogi. That would entice the waste-mongers to scrounge for plastic on streets and turn them in for their meal. And we might save a life or two, a few cancers and innumerable visits to the emergency room by asthmatics. You don't suppose the health and life insurance firms want to pitch in???
Shall we burn our waste early
and claim to avoid the Bhogi smog?
Shall we source segregate it
so urchins may light 'plastic only' fires?
Shall we hoard plastic for Bhogi day
knowing it'd fetch a price so high?
Shall we instead walk away
turning the proverbial blind eye?
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Nuclear Devastation via Coal Power?
Nuclear Devastation via Coal Power?
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
If you are an avid reader then perhaps you have noticed how certain articles are 'friendlier' than others, and not merely because they are well-written. I happened to come across one such undated piece on the internet. Authored by Alex Gabbard of the ORNL, it reveals how coal-fired power plants emit many times, repeat, many times more nuclear irradiating particles than nuclear plants. (I forwarded it to the MoEF). And we thought nuclear plants had monopoly rights on human irradiation!
Surprising, yes, but is it a cause for concern? Consider this. In an age of global warming, half the world is unabashedly moving toward coal. India and China have turned coal in to a religion of the 'modern' day industrial revolution. China, as we hear, is adding a coal-fired power plant every week. And, going by the news in business papers, India is no laggard. (Any wonder coal beats other fuels by a mile when power plant are awarded on the basis of bidding 'levelized' tariffs – indexed to fuel price inflation??). With government-sponsored rural electrification, free or almost free power for agricultural pumpsets, subsidized power for residential consumers, unabated population growth and a booming economy, power demand is exploding through the roof. (Don't believe me? Look at the returns in Reliance Diversified Power Mutual Fund). What this means for global CO2 emissions and climate change is the subject of many articles, documents and reports. But, what does that imply for radiation exposure? For now, let's take a giant 'leap of faith' (believe in the divinity of God's followers!) and presume that we manage to stabilize CO2 emissions, if necessary by cooking up afforestation numbers and sequestering carbon. Coal-fired plants will then expand their share of power generation. As we move to coal of incrementally lower quality, radioactive ash emissions will further increase. Will Gibbard's radiation emission numbers stand up? Are they too conservative? Do we risk overshooting his estimates in search of a 'higher growth trajectory'. Does it even matter? Hey, what's a little irradiation for an extra scoop of ice-cream in the stock market?!!!!
On a tangent, we may yet save the polar ice and the disputed island with Bangladesh, but at what cost? Does it matter to the raccoons whether they were killed by warmer temperatures or bulldozers laying landing strips on their humble habitat? Does it matter to the whale whether its low sperm count was caused by warmer temperatures or 'non-toxic water-based/acrylic paint'? Are asthmatics any better off in a cooler world with lower humidity while breathing benzene from high-octane gas emitted by vehicles in the 'start and 'idle revving' cycle by the nasty neighbor? And, would you prefer power plant irradiation while preserving our abundant thorium deposits for a post-scorched earth world? I don't know about you, but I like 'subzi' made from fresh vegetables before they turn stale in the fridge and are cast to the bins!
Choices, conscious and unconscious
Private choices, choices for the family
Choices for today, and those for the 'morrow
Choices this generation, choices for decades and centuries beyond
Choices for humanity, choices for pets, animals and plants
Choices for this earthly life, choices beyond
Choices, choices and Hobson's choices!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
If you are an avid reader then perhaps you have noticed how certain articles are 'friendlier' than others, and not merely because they are well-written. I happened to come across one such undated piece on the internet. Authored by Alex Gabbard of the ORNL, it reveals how coal-fired power plants emit many times, repeat, many times more nuclear irradiating particles than nuclear plants. (I forwarded it to the MoEF). And we thought nuclear plants had monopoly rights on human irradiation!
Surprising, yes, but is it a cause for concern? Consider this. In an age of global warming, half the world is unabashedly moving toward coal. India and China have turned coal in to a religion of the 'modern' day industrial revolution. China, as we hear, is adding a coal-fired power plant every week. And, going by the news in business papers, India is no laggard. (Any wonder coal beats other fuels by a mile when power plant are awarded on the basis of bidding 'levelized' tariffs – indexed to fuel price inflation??). With government-sponsored rural electrification, free or almost free power for agricultural pumpsets, subsidized power for residential consumers, unabated population growth and a booming economy, power demand is exploding through the roof. (Don't believe me? Look at the returns in Reliance Diversified Power Mutual Fund). What this means for global CO2 emissions and climate change is the subject of many articles, documents and reports. But, what does that imply for radiation exposure? For now, let's take a giant 'leap of faith' (believe in the divinity of God's followers!) and presume that we manage to stabilize CO2 emissions, if necessary by cooking up afforestation numbers and sequestering carbon. Coal-fired plants will then expand their share of power generation. As we move to coal of incrementally lower quality, radioactive ash emissions will further increase. Will Gibbard's radiation emission numbers stand up? Are they too conservative? Do we risk overshooting his estimates in search of a 'higher growth trajectory'. Does it even matter? Hey, what's a little irradiation for an extra scoop of ice-cream in the stock market?!!!!
On a tangent, we may yet save the polar ice and the disputed island with Bangladesh, but at what cost? Does it matter to the raccoons whether they were killed by warmer temperatures or bulldozers laying landing strips on their humble habitat? Does it matter to the whale whether its low sperm count was caused by warmer temperatures or 'non-toxic water-based/acrylic paint'? Are asthmatics any better off in a cooler world with lower humidity while breathing benzene from high-octane gas emitted by vehicles in the 'start and 'idle revving' cycle by the nasty neighbor? And, would you prefer power plant irradiation while preserving our abundant thorium deposits for a post-scorched earth world? I don't know about you, but I like 'subzi' made from fresh vegetables before they turn stale in the fridge and are cast to the bins!
Choices, conscious and unconscious
Private choices, choices for the family
Choices for today, and those for the 'morrow
Choices this generation, choices for decades and centuries beyond
Choices for humanity, choices for pets, animals and plants
Choices for this earthly life, choices beyond
Choices, choices and Hobson's choices!
Monday, November 26, 2007
'Optimist'ize Your Life!
'Optimist'ize Your Life!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
“Be an Optimist”, they said
“Smile and look around,
the world is bright
glamorous and beautiful”
Persuaded, I have shed
my pessimist snake-skin,
peeled away my morose face
(even shaved my week-long stubble!)
And now, sporting a silly smile
I have turned, overnight,
a 'born-again optimist'
livin' the good life,
ignoring matters mundane, and
anything beyond instant comprehension
Wishing away all grey clouds of tomorrow
in to the enjoyment of the now
I am an Optimist, therefore I am!
No longer do I trek weekends
run along the beach at dawn
Vocational training? Evening college? No, not for me
With latest sunglasses, lotsa macho stuff
a bike from hell, and boots to fit
No book worth the thrill
of a babe riding pillion
curling her hands 'round me
as we zoom away to the mall
Gotta meet friends, live up the life,
check out movies,
the music, the moves and the shakes
SMS every gimmick there is
beep my way to ephemeral glory
Be the trendsetter, buy that gizmo,
Honest to God, jus' my share
to help the corporates light up their register
while I Optimistize my expenditures
'fterall, they discount my gas, they sure do
If there's anything you should know, hear this from me
Be an Optimist, 'twill change your life!
Hey, but what about
Justice? equality? liberty?
Equity and opportunity
in this fledgling land of ours?
What's that I hear of inflation and subsidies
jus' more of election politics?
Global warming threatening economic growth
Technological obsolescence causing unemployment?
Nuclear imperialism couched in capitalism
(with fringe benefits distributed in the stock market)?
The industry-religion-mafia triangle?
(Whoever heard of that?)
Investment in mutual funds, or is it
fraud in financial markets?
Caring for the young, the aged, and the infirm?
vs money for public safety, hygiene and education?
Stop, stop, stop, Don't tax my brain!
Painful it is even to hear
Why worry about things that matter not to me?
Ignorance is bliss, so they say
and a blissful Optimist I sure am,
So bother me not, my friend dear
with debates and serious arguments
Join the Optimist club, if you dare
But, if you happen to be a wimp
or a 'pink' who 'cares'
take my word, ask the nerd o'er there,
I hear he'd rather be
of all unholy things
a Pessimist!
ps: The Optimist made a career of painting rosy pictures of year-ahead sales and profits to FIIs and laughed all the way to the pessimist's foreclosure!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
“Be an Optimist”, they said
“Smile and look around,
the world is bright
glamorous and beautiful”
Persuaded, I have shed
my pessimist snake-skin,
peeled away my morose face
(even shaved my week-long stubble!)
And now, sporting a silly smile
I have turned, overnight,
a 'born-again optimist'
livin' the good life,
ignoring matters mundane, and
anything beyond instant comprehension
Wishing away all grey clouds of tomorrow
in to the enjoyment of the now
I am an Optimist, therefore I am!
No longer do I trek weekends
run along the beach at dawn
Vocational training? Evening college? No, not for me
With latest sunglasses, lotsa macho stuff
a bike from hell, and boots to fit
No book worth the thrill
of a babe riding pillion
curling her hands 'round me
as we zoom away to the mall
Gotta meet friends, live up the life,
check out movies,
the music, the moves and the shakes
SMS every gimmick there is
beep my way to ephemeral glory
Be the trendsetter, buy that gizmo,
Honest to God, jus' my share
to help the corporates light up their register
while I Optimistize my expenditures
'fterall, they discount my gas, they sure do
If there's anything you should know, hear this from me
Be an Optimist, 'twill change your life!
Hey, but what about
Justice? equality? liberty?
Equity and opportunity
in this fledgling land of ours?
What's that I hear of inflation and subsidies
jus' more of election politics?
Global warming threatening economic growth
Technological obsolescence causing unemployment?
Nuclear imperialism couched in capitalism
(with fringe benefits distributed in the stock market)?
The industry-religion-mafia triangle?
(Whoever heard of that?)
Investment in mutual funds, or is it
fraud in financial markets?
Caring for the young, the aged, and the infirm?
vs money for public safety, hygiene and education?
Stop, stop, stop, Don't tax my brain!
Painful it is even to hear
Why worry about things that matter not to me?
Ignorance is bliss, so they say
and a blissful Optimist I sure am,
So bother me not, my friend dear
with debates and serious arguments
Join the Optimist club, if you dare
But, if you happen to be a wimp
or a 'pink' who 'cares'
take my word, ask the nerd o'er there,
I hear he'd rather be
of all unholy things
a Pessimist!
ps: The Optimist made a career of painting rosy pictures of year-ahead sales and profits to FIIs and laughed all the way to the pessimist's foreclosure!
Friday, November 16, 2007
Global Warming, the Movie - Cycle III
Global Warming, the Movie - Cycle III
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Ever wondered why no Indian actor or actress ever made it to a James Bond movie? Or, for that matter, an Indian fiction author? Because there is no 'story', no 'plot', no 'real-life conspiracy' to base it on. Get it? So, as a favor to my more illustrious colleagues in the film industry, here is my outline for a 'James Bond' movie. I have named it 'Global Warming, the Movie - Cycle III' (No apologies to Al Gore!). You may want to rename it 'Mother of All Conspiracies'.
Once, there were a group of politicians who, for various reasons not related to character, intelligence, performance, principles (too much of it, of course), fell out of grace and power. Not finding any takers, they decided to get together. In trying to accommodate each other's past, they committed to certain wrongs in the future, so no one among them get away leaving the rest behind. They built up a constituency of the denied – environmentalists ignored and derided by the society, social activists no one cared to lend an ear to, scientists denied their due recognition, union workers suppressed by capitalists and incorrect economic policies, and of course, the poor ignorant farmers believing in the word of God. This motley group now needed someone who could feed their constituency while they staked claim to power. Enter the master strategist (He prefers anonymity). Why not we play a game no one would even dare to conceive?
Behold the birth of the contra strategy! We know businesses using dirty fuels will face increasing pressures to move in to much costlier, cleaner fuel to combat global warming. We know oil and coal-rich countries are loathe to accept global warming. We know our country has vast resources of thorium and our nuclear scientists have succeeded with the thorium cycle (It's not their fault that it happens to be closed-cycle and very low cost, in short 'pareto superior' over existing power technologies). Wouldn't it be ever so stupidly suicidal to introduce new generation nuclear power that is cheaper by the dozen than fossil fuels, global warming notwithstanding? Why not hold it back when there is a more than a nominal 'willingness to pay' to suppress it? Better yet, sell the technology to fossil fuel energy tycoons, oil-rich countries and MNCs of the west for a not inconsiderable sum? ..... And so was born the plan to hoodwink the nation in to selling away its home-grown, thorium-exploiting nuclear technology even while claiming to obtain 'advanced' nuclear technology under a 'nuclear deal' with the US or a 'technology transfer' agreement under the framework of the FCCC (we get carbon credits for 'free'!).
Now all that is needed is a 'fall guy' for the entire drama – a 'judge' for namesake, in reality a sacrificial lamb on whom to build the altar of colossal treachery. Someone with a brilliant academic record and meteoric future, someone who fits the bill perfectly and not because he is brown, thin, short and reticent. But first, he must be framed suitably in every crime known to humanity and beyond, and then bundled off to the US for higher studies. The plot is on. The student meanders through his assistantship and eventually finds a summer internship in the corporate world. No points for guessing who his employer is! Wonder of wonders, he makes an impression and passes their test! (Never heard of the 'key', have you?) Shall we anoint him a regulatory, a judge or assign a political future? No, No, most definitely No. First have him fired as a spy and treat him like a criminal on return. Threaten him with arrest, volunteer him every time a 'hit key' comes along (remember he has passed as a 'judge') and deny him repeatedly until he retreats in to a shell to protect his nest egg and his family.
Now the stage is set. Negotiate a secret deal with coal and oil MNCs and oil/coal rich countries that protects their resources and markets by suppressing advanced nuclear power technology. Sell the home-grown closed-cycle thorium power nuclear technology or fusion technology to the CIA-MNC-OPEC combine in a brazen example of 'reverse technology transfer'. (Yeah, something like $10 billion a year in to our stock markets - most of it in to domestic energy companies whose executives fund our campaigns and in which we are well invested - for the next 30 years regardless of who is in power....yeah, they too are 'in' the deal. Also.... that private equity fund.... we will manage it for the goodwill of our environmentalists, scientists and union leaders.... and if at all necessary, an endowed chair for that asshole!). Act holy and green; fund programs furthering energy efficiency and nuclear power. Talk of carbon credits, even subsidize energy-efficient CFL lighting (never mind the power was generated from lignite!) Covertly, invest in uranium commodity markets and have the purveyors of yesterday's technology fund space vehicles ostensibly for lunar exploration for uranium (and when the mission finds no uranium, we may laugh our way to the bank). Wonder of wonders, the strategy even finds favor with Australians who would rather generate power at 2 cents a KWH with their low grade coal deposits!
But what about our getaway? Ahh, that's where we need our judge, No, the spy, I mean the criminal. He too must pay for the wrongs he didn't commit! He serves jail time for 30 years for the sum of our wrongs while we move our kitty away (I am settling in Christmas Islands. How about you?). It also gives sufficient time for the fossil fuel industry to invest in and takeover the next generation energy industry. To cap it all and at the end of the term, we backstab the political right by signing in to a global warming treaty, and have the co-conspirators on the other side either announce the invention of a closed-cycle thorium nuclear power technology or release evidence of the suppression of the superior nuclear technology. That should put the right in to a tizzy as we sail in to the sunset.....
Epilogue: All movie-goers had a gala time and returned home to peaceful sleep. The Cycle IV sequel? The Master Strategist is already working on it.
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Ever wondered why no Indian actor or actress ever made it to a James Bond movie? Or, for that matter, an Indian fiction author? Because there is no 'story', no 'plot', no 'real-life conspiracy' to base it on. Get it? So, as a favor to my more illustrious colleagues in the film industry, here is my outline for a 'James Bond' movie. I have named it 'Global Warming, the Movie - Cycle III' (No apologies to Al Gore!). You may want to rename it 'Mother of All Conspiracies'.
Once, there were a group of politicians who, for various reasons not related to character, intelligence, performance, principles (too much of it, of course), fell out of grace and power. Not finding any takers, they decided to get together. In trying to accommodate each other's past, they committed to certain wrongs in the future, so no one among them get away leaving the rest behind. They built up a constituency of the denied – environmentalists ignored and derided by the society, social activists no one cared to lend an ear to, scientists denied their due recognition, union workers suppressed by capitalists and incorrect economic policies, and of course, the poor ignorant farmers believing in the word of God. This motley group now needed someone who could feed their constituency while they staked claim to power. Enter the master strategist (He prefers anonymity). Why not we play a game no one would even dare to conceive?
Behold the birth of the contra strategy! We know businesses using dirty fuels will face increasing pressures to move in to much costlier, cleaner fuel to combat global warming. We know oil and coal-rich countries are loathe to accept global warming. We know our country has vast resources of thorium and our nuclear scientists have succeeded with the thorium cycle (It's not their fault that it happens to be closed-cycle and very low cost, in short 'pareto superior' over existing power technologies). Wouldn't it be ever so stupidly suicidal to introduce new generation nuclear power that is cheaper by the dozen than fossil fuels, global warming notwithstanding? Why not hold it back when there is a more than a nominal 'willingness to pay' to suppress it? Better yet, sell the technology to fossil fuel energy tycoons, oil-rich countries and MNCs of the west for a not inconsiderable sum? ..... And so was born the plan to hoodwink the nation in to selling away its home-grown, thorium-exploiting nuclear technology even while claiming to obtain 'advanced' nuclear technology under a 'nuclear deal' with the US or a 'technology transfer' agreement under the framework of the FCCC (we get carbon credits for 'free'!).
Now all that is needed is a 'fall guy' for the entire drama – a 'judge' for namesake, in reality a sacrificial lamb on whom to build the altar of colossal treachery. Someone with a brilliant academic record and meteoric future, someone who fits the bill perfectly and not because he is brown, thin, short and reticent. But first, he must be framed suitably in every crime known to humanity and beyond, and then bundled off to the US for higher studies. The plot is on. The student meanders through his assistantship and eventually finds a summer internship in the corporate world. No points for guessing who his employer is! Wonder of wonders, he makes an impression and passes their test! (Never heard of the 'key', have you?) Shall we anoint him a regulatory, a judge or assign a political future? No, No, most definitely No. First have him fired as a spy and treat him like a criminal on return. Threaten him with arrest, volunteer him every time a 'hit key' comes along (remember he has passed as a 'judge') and deny him repeatedly until he retreats in to a shell to protect his nest egg and his family.
Now the stage is set. Negotiate a secret deal with coal and oil MNCs and oil/coal rich countries that protects their resources and markets by suppressing advanced nuclear power technology. Sell the home-grown closed-cycle thorium power nuclear technology or fusion technology to the CIA-MNC-OPEC combine in a brazen example of 'reverse technology transfer'. (Yeah, something like $10 billion a year in to our stock markets - most of it in to domestic energy companies whose executives fund our campaigns and in which we are well invested - for the next 30 years regardless of who is in power....yeah, they too are 'in' the deal. Also.... that private equity fund.... we will manage it for the goodwill of our environmentalists, scientists and union leaders.... and if at all necessary, an endowed chair for that asshole!). Act holy and green; fund programs furthering energy efficiency and nuclear power. Talk of carbon credits, even subsidize energy-efficient CFL lighting (never mind the power was generated from lignite!) Covertly, invest in uranium commodity markets and have the purveyors of yesterday's technology fund space vehicles ostensibly for lunar exploration for uranium (and when the mission finds no uranium, we may laugh our way to the bank). Wonder of wonders, the strategy even finds favor with Australians who would rather generate power at 2 cents a KWH with their low grade coal deposits!
But what about our getaway? Ahh, that's where we need our judge, No, the spy, I mean the criminal. He too must pay for the wrongs he didn't commit! He serves jail time for 30 years for the sum of our wrongs while we move our kitty away (I am settling in Christmas Islands. How about you?). It also gives sufficient time for the fossil fuel industry to invest in and takeover the next generation energy industry. To cap it all and at the end of the term, we backstab the political right by signing in to a global warming treaty, and have the co-conspirators on the other side either announce the invention of a closed-cycle thorium nuclear power technology or release evidence of the suppression of the superior nuclear technology. That should put the right in to a tizzy as we sail in to the sunset.....
Epilogue: All movie-goers had a gala time and returned home to peaceful sleep. The Cycle IV sequel? The Master Strategist is already working on it.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Sane Insane?
Sane Insane?
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
What is sanity? A state of mind?
Behavior consistent with society's norms
and expectations of the inferiors?
Following traditions of the majority
going about the routine timidly,
unobtrusively and unnoticed
so not to raise the ire of households,
neighbors or the powers that be?
Accepting established rules and institutions
stacked against the commons?
Disappearing and dissolving in to the multitudes
of those gone by, in to an oblivion of the ordinary?
And, pray, what is insanity?
Unmitigated, unexpressed frustration
against injustice – stark yet private, gory yet informal;
Anger at denials and insults umpteen
attempts on life, mail fraud, forgery, intimidation
IPR theft, smoking, gassing, witch craft, you name it?
Outrage against relatives
who sold out to enrich themselves
while snaring the family deeper in web?
Fighting every stone cast by neighbors
while living in the glasshouse of an 'executive test'
one did not volunteer for?
Writing one's diary, regurgitating memory,
(even mutterings to oneself to 'register' thoughts and ideas
that would otherwise get smoked out)
before the MNC-CIA combine could get to it,
pry in to your life, your bedroom,
even your memory and preferences
and have the mafia blackmail you,
sift and screen your future,
or whatever is left of it
until finally, all that remains
is an unrecognizable shadow of yourself,
one you wouldn't recognize in the mirror
and you voluntarily step away
from a career among the stars?
Ain't it easy to pull down a dark horse
a genius who dared to dream
the American dream and made it,
but for cold-blooded machinations
of those with an ulterior ideology?
(Not so fast, smart ass!)
Ain't it easier, I reckon,
to bump an ace, show him a failure,
a spy, impotent, even insane
than “suck up” and invite him
with a Mercedes for a signing bonus?
Ain't it easy to delay and force him in to penury
until his work and qualifications lose relevance
and he begs again for a job on his fours?
So I have decided
that in this perverted world of opposites
it wiser to be insane
than follow in the serpentine of the sanes.
Wish me luck as I trudge against the grain,
a lonely soldier, a rebel if you will
in the war against status quo
a war for truth and justice, for opportunity,
an insane voice in the sea of the sanes!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
What is sanity? A state of mind?
Behavior consistent with society's norms
and expectations of the inferiors?
Following traditions of the majority
going about the routine timidly,
unobtrusively and unnoticed
so not to raise the ire of households,
neighbors or the powers that be?
Accepting established rules and institutions
stacked against the commons?
Disappearing and dissolving in to the multitudes
of those gone by, in to an oblivion of the ordinary?
And, pray, what is insanity?
Unmitigated, unexpressed frustration
against injustice – stark yet private, gory yet informal;
Anger at denials and insults umpteen
attempts on life, mail fraud, forgery, intimidation
IPR theft, smoking, gassing, witch craft, you name it?
Outrage against relatives
who sold out to enrich themselves
while snaring the family deeper in web?
Fighting every stone cast by neighbors
while living in the glasshouse of an 'executive test'
one did not volunteer for?
Writing one's diary, regurgitating memory,
(even mutterings to oneself to 'register' thoughts and ideas
that would otherwise get smoked out)
before the MNC-CIA combine could get to it,
pry in to your life, your bedroom,
even your memory and preferences
and have the mafia blackmail you,
sift and screen your future,
or whatever is left of it
until finally, all that remains
is an unrecognizable shadow of yourself,
one you wouldn't recognize in the mirror
and you voluntarily step away
from a career among the stars?
Ain't it easy to pull down a dark horse
a genius who dared to dream
the American dream and made it,
but for cold-blooded machinations
of those with an ulterior ideology?
(Not so fast, smart ass!)
Ain't it easier, I reckon,
to bump an ace, show him a failure,
a spy, impotent, even insane
than “suck up” and invite him
with a Mercedes for a signing bonus?
Ain't it easy to delay and force him in to penury
until his work and qualifications lose relevance
and he begs again for a job on his fours?
So I have decided
that in this perverted world of opposites
it wiser to be insane
than follow in the serpentine of the sanes.
Wish me luck as I trudge against the grain,
a lonely soldier, a rebel if you will
in the war against status quo
a war for truth and justice, for opportunity,
an insane voice in the sea of the sanes!
Friday, November 2, 2007
Diwali by the Marina!
Diwali by the Marina!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Years ago, I wrote to the Tamil Nadu Government years. Perhaps it was lost in the email garbage cleared automatically by the email janitor robot? But then, some things are better appreciated when repeated. Besides, the blog is a perfect medium to post rejected suggestions! The message? Simple: Celebrate Diwali Publicly, Together!
The problem, as I perceive it, is that Chennai is a very congested city. Add tradition, religious fervor and generous Diwali bonuses to this concoction, and what results is an explosion of sound, light and chemicals in a short period of time that pollutes the air and earth and poisons the very young, the minorities and the aged. The scores of fires, explosions and accidents leading in to and on the festival day do no favor to Diwali meant to celebrate the victory of the good over evil. (We could get in to debating what is good and what is evil, but I'll hold that off for another day!). Unmitigated littering of the streets with arsenic-, cadmium-, and strontium-laced cracker waste that contaminate well water and ground water, rooms filled with smoky, poisonous air and painful 1000-wallahs and 10,000-wallahs that put mosquito mats to shame are not what Lord Rama ordered. I daresay the festival is turning more to the liking of Lord Ravana!
But, I am not inciting religious passions here. My purpose is to suggest a better way. Have your Diwali sans the devil. Chennai is blessed with a coast and a wide beach. Let's celebrate by the sea. Choose a Diwali weekend or the weekend immediately after the festival. Ban private fireworks celebration. Instead, organize a public offshore Diwali fireworks display. We could declare the transport system 'free' for the evening and stage a moving offshore display of fireworks that enthralls the throngs for a couple of hours, for the weekend. It need not be entirely or even partly government-sponsored. Many business houses would come forward to participate if the event were correctly promoted. The Marina road could be turned in to a street-side eatery for the evening. It would be a gala public event. An event for the young and the old, the rich and the poor, the religious or for that matter, even the atheist to enjoy. A cosmopolitan festival for a truly cosmopolitan city!
Open your heart. Invite the world to the Chennai Christmas!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Years ago, I wrote to the Tamil Nadu Government years. Perhaps it was lost in the email garbage cleared automatically by the email janitor robot? But then, some things are better appreciated when repeated. Besides, the blog is a perfect medium to post rejected suggestions! The message? Simple: Celebrate Diwali Publicly, Together!
The problem, as I perceive it, is that Chennai is a very congested city. Add tradition, religious fervor and generous Diwali bonuses to this concoction, and what results is an explosion of sound, light and chemicals in a short period of time that pollutes the air and earth and poisons the very young, the minorities and the aged. The scores of fires, explosions and accidents leading in to and on the festival day do no favor to Diwali meant to celebrate the victory of the good over evil. (We could get in to debating what is good and what is evil, but I'll hold that off for another day!). Unmitigated littering of the streets with arsenic-, cadmium-, and strontium-laced cracker waste that contaminate well water and ground water, rooms filled with smoky, poisonous air and painful 1000-wallahs and 10,000-wallahs that put mosquito mats to shame are not what Lord Rama ordered. I daresay the festival is turning more to the liking of Lord Ravana!
But, I am not inciting religious passions here. My purpose is to suggest a better way. Have your Diwali sans the devil. Chennai is blessed with a coast and a wide beach. Let's celebrate by the sea. Choose a Diwali weekend or the weekend immediately after the festival. Ban private fireworks celebration. Instead, organize a public offshore Diwali fireworks display. We could declare the transport system 'free' for the evening and stage a moving offshore display of fireworks that enthralls the throngs for a couple of hours, for the weekend. It need not be entirely or even partly government-sponsored. Many business houses would come forward to participate if the event were correctly promoted. The Marina road could be turned in to a street-side eatery for the evening. It would be a gala public event. An event for the young and the old, the rich and the poor, the religious or for that matter, even the atheist to enjoy. A cosmopolitan festival for a truly cosmopolitan city!
Open your heart. Invite the world to the Chennai Christmas!
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Ride on our Dreams, Ride to the Moon!
Ride on our Dreams, Ride to the Moon!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Long have we suffered
Too long have we been ignored
Poisoning, self-immolation, drowning
suicides and murders, you name it
Been there, seen that.
Promised the green revolution,
Only to be subsidized in to impoverishment
Herded like cattle in to morchas and stampedes
Guinea pigs for MNCs testing their wares
Are we gullible illiterates? Followers in herd-mentality?
Mass sacrifices at the altar of vote politics?
'Beneficiaries' of many a policy
that enrich the politicians and businesses
who pander our poverty among the powers that be?
Have we been reduced in to dated statistics
for trend analysis in annual reports?
Are we guinea pigs in life insurance scams?
Organ donors for foreigners wealthy?
Insipid, stale news unfit for Headlines Today
displaced in the papers by district sports?
Trashed in oblivion, never picked again?
Now that the lands are in lien,
and we have drowned in misery
Shall we change vocations,
break ships that moved foodgrains?
Move in to town to cook and clean
live in the jhopdi by your high-rise
for a few grains of rationed, export-quality wheat?
Suppressed seemingly in to eternal slavery,
what hope should we hold out now
for our family, our children, their future?
Elections are drawing near,
Perhaps our voices seem a tad louder?
Shall we seek the fruits of democracy?
Equal opportunity, equal access, constitutional rights,
Why, even mere human rights?
Schools for our children, water to drink
A place to call home, remunerative farming?
Or, as they beckon us, shall we
make a beeline to the party leader's?
Perhaps lady luck will smile this time
in order of torture, if not penury?
Will the nuke deal change our lot?
Will color cellphones hasten aid?
Will intra-day hedging in commodity futures
bring my child a meal a day?
Will the PSU IPOs pull us out?
Will policy reform do us good?
Should we buy a handful BT cotton seed
with 'trickle down' disaster relief?
Sell our lands away for an SEZ?
After all, the Green Revolution has passed us by
(Yes Sir, green it was very!)
Shall we now await the IT revolution?
Beep a number come loan-default time?
Is this the nation Gandhi died for?
Where Mother Teresa led by example?
Are we worthy of Ambedkar, Amte and Bhave?
Is this the India they envisioned?
As we sleep in the open and gaze at the sky
The stars seem dimmer and farther away
They may steal our lands and our home
but our dreams, they shall always be
May our dreams be the wind beneath your wings.
Ride on our dreams, Ride to the moon
And when you are there, don't look back,
Go on, go for the stars!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Long have we suffered
Too long have we been ignored
Poisoning, self-immolation, drowning
suicides and murders, you name it
Been there, seen that.
Promised the green revolution,
Only to be subsidized in to impoverishment
Herded like cattle in to morchas and stampedes
Guinea pigs for MNCs testing their wares
Are we gullible illiterates? Followers in herd-mentality?
Mass sacrifices at the altar of vote politics?
'Beneficiaries' of many a policy
that enrich the politicians and businesses
who pander our poverty among the powers that be?
Have we been reduced in to dated statistics
for trend analysis in annual reports?
Are we guinea pigs in life insurance scams?
Organ donors for foreigners wealthy?
Insipid, stale news unfit for Headlines Today
displaced in the papers by district sports?
Trashed in oblivion, never picked again?
Now that the lands are in lien,
and we have drowned in misery
Shall we change vocations,
break ships that moved foodgrains?
Move in to town to cook and clean
live in the jhopdi by your high-rise
for a few grains of rationed, export-quality wheat?
Suppressed seemingly in to eternal slavery,
what hope should we hold out now
for our family, our children, their future?
Elections are drawing near,
Perhaps our voices seem a tad louder?
Shall we seek the fruits of democracy?
Equal opportunity, equal access, constitutional rights,
Why, even mere human rights?
Schools for our children, water to drink
A place to call home, remunerative farming?
Or, as they beckon us, shall we
make a beeline to the party leader's?
Perhaps lady luck will smile this time
in order of torture, if not penury?
Will the nuke deal change our lot?
Will color cellphones hasten aid?
Will intra-day hedging in commodity futures
bring my child a meal a day?
Will the PSU IPOs pull us out?
Will policy reform do us good?
Should we buy a handful BT cotton seed
with 'trickle down' disaster relief?
Sell our lands away for an SEZ?
After all, the Green Revolution has passed us by
(Yes Sir, green it was very!)
Shall we now await the IT revolution?
Beep a number come loan-default time?
Is this the nation Gandhi died for?
Where Mother Teresa led by example?
Are we worthy of Ambedkar, Amte and Bhave?
Is this the India they envisioned?
As we sleep in the open and gaze at the sky
The stars seem dimmer and farther away
They may steal our lands and our home
but our dreams, they shall always be
May our dreams be the wind beneath your wings.
Ride on our dreams, Ride to the moon
And when you are there, don't look back,
Go on, go for the stars!
Monday, October 22, 2007
IPOs, Lies and Videotape (Yes, Lies, All Lies!)
IPOs, Lies and Videotape
(Yes, Lies, All Lies!)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Ever so often, the media draws our attention to the zooming stock markets and what the sky-high PE multiples portend for valuation and future course of the market. In developed economies, the stock market is so large and so mature, that practically no IPO, no matter what size, dents the market. The story is very different in emerging economies like China and India where large state-run enterprises, fed with government protection and subsidy, are privatised by offering them in IPOs to the stock market. The relative size of these IPOs in relation to the market capitalization, though small, is significant enough to induce market volatility as investors pull out of their existing holdings to subscribe.
In developed nations, these decisions are unnecessary, even illegal. Entrepreneurs take their enterprise to the market at a time they judge convenient or optimal. That brings to the fore many questions: What the IPO size should be (ie, which enterprise to offer and what percent of the stockholding), when it should be offered; whether it should be graded and what the price band should be. And even presuming the market regulator works independently of the ruling party in the center (yup, have a good laugh!), in what order should the regulator permit these IPOs to open in the market? At any given time, there are 50-odd companies that have filed their prospectus with the regulator. Are these issues timed according to quality? Quality as certified by the grading authority, a certification that is presently entirely optional, giving rise to the signaling and lemons problem economists talk about. (If my IPO is truly a good prospect, why would I have it certified? Then again, I could signal to investors by having it certified. And to the contrary, certification may enhance my image if my prospects aren't that good. After all, I can arrange four quarters of PAT rising at 40% from a quarter with loss!) Do the regulators yield with regard to the timing if the pricing is closer to the government's wishes? (After all, large listing gains are beneficial to FIIs and the stupid small investor who is also a voter!) Wouldn't it be more transparent and informative, if these entrepreneurs competed with each other to bid for IPO slots?
Now that's an idea worth exploring. Entrepreneurs who realize that timing is as much a decision variable as pricing and certification will bid different amounts for their IPO slot depending on the condition of the market, their prospects, their needs and the (perceived) number of competitors. The bidding will ensure that those firms that wish to 'strike the iron when it is hot', perhaps for want of funds to expand, (or reasons not that abstruse) will bid high for a slot. High-priced IPOs will seek the market when the PE is inflated. Bargain IPOs will be deferred to tepid markets. The market PE may not zoom higher than do the realty stocks on BSE. The ruling party, FIIs and IPO funds may no longer be able to play hokey with your fortunes at the market. And that would do the long term investor a lot of good.
Then again, don't read much in to this column. It may have already been 'purchased' away! These days, even lies command a price!!!!!
(Yes, Lies, All Lies!)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Ever so often, the media draws our attention to the zooming stock markets and what the sky-high PE multiples portend for valuation and future course of the market. In developed economies, the stock market is so large and so mature, that practically no IPO, no matter what size, dents the market. The story is very different in emerging economies like China and India where large state-run enterprises, fed with government protection and subsidy, are privatised by offering them in IPOs to the stock market. The relative size of these IPOs in relation to the market capitalization, though small, is significant enough to induce market volatility as investors pull out of their existing holdings to subscribe.
In developed nations, these decisions are unnecessary, even illegal. Entrepreneurs take their enterprise to the market at a time they judge convenient or optimal. That brings to the fore many questions: What the IPO size should be (ie, which enterprise to offer and what percent of the stockholding), when it should be offered; whether it should be graded and what the price band should be. And even presuming the market regulator works independently of the ruling party in the center (yup, have a good laugh!), in what order should the regulator permit these IPOs to open in the market? At any given time, there are 50-odd companies that have filed their prospectus with the regulator. Are these issues timed according to quality? Quality as certified by the grading authority, a certification that is presently entirely optional, giving rise to the signaling and lemons problem economists talk about. (If my IPO is truly a good prospect, why would I have it certified? Then again, I could signal to investors by having it certified. And to the contrary, certification may enhance my image if my prospects aren't that good. After all, I can arrange four quarters of PAT rising at 40% from a quarter with loss!) Do the regulators yield with regard to the timing if the pricing is closer to the government's wishes? (After all, large listing gains are beneficial to FIIs and the stupid small investor who is also a voter!) Wouldn't it be more transparent and informative, if these entrepreneurs competed with each other to bid for IPO slots?
Now that's an idea worth exploring. Entrepreneurs who realize that timing is as much a decision variable as pricing and certification will bid different amounts for their IPO slot depending on the condition of the market, their prospects, their needs and the (perceived) number of competitors. The bidding will ensure that those firms that wish to 'strike the iron when it is hot', perhaps for want of funds to expand, (or reasons not that abstruse) will bid high for a slot. High-priced IPOs will seek the market when the PE is inflated. Bargain IPOs will be deferred to tepid markets. The market PE may not zoom higher than do the realty stocks on BSE. The ruling party, FIIs and IPO funds may no longer be able to play hokey with your fortunes at the market. And that would do the long term investor a lot of good.
Then again, don't read much in to this column. It may have already been 'purchased' away! These days, even lies command a price!!!!!
Saturday, October 20, 2007
Auto Loans! Dime a Thousand Dollars!
Auto Loans! Dime a Thousand Dollars!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
7 years after returning to India, I am still getting used to the way in which policies are set in this country. Recently, I read that the Honorable FM exhorted PSU banks to find ways to lower the interest rate on loans. Specifically, he sought lower interest rates to stimulate the auto sector growing at less than the 'target' rate. That got my old moth-balled brain whirring. Isn't that what the doctor ordered for our beleaguered transport sector? Apparently, what we need is not investment in good roads, road-widening and flyovers, more buses, an MRTS or a better traffic management, but more vehicles on the road. More vehicles for urban traffic that moves at a snail's pace negotiating congestion and snarls. More cars, more smoke-belching RAVs, more vans and more trucks on narrow roads getting narrower by the day. Wonder what motivated the FM's request. Does the Government's IO model reveal new vehicle purchases as the best means to increase the GDP? Perhaps it the best means to couch the increase in CO2 emissions required to accept a baseline emissions in a global warming treaty? If so, the minister figures it right that reducing the interest rate charged by banks is the appropriate policy prescription. After all, the upfront fixed cost is the largest obstacle to purchasing vehicles. And if banks can lower the interest rate on loans to an extent that large, smoke-belching vehicles are affordable even to the clerk scrutinizing the loan document, then that must herald good times in the stock market to those invested in the auto and the steel sector. Right?
Wrong. Aren't we doing exactly the opposite of what we should be? Shouldn't our focus be on infrastructure first? Shouldn't infrastructure projects qualify for the lowest interest rate? And even we do wish to lend money for vehicle purchases, shouldn't we price in the externalities caused by vehicles, if not in 'time of day' road pricing and emissions taxes, then in loans rates? Shouldn't loan rates vary with the emissions performance or the size (and fuel) of the vehicle? Personally, and I suspect many among us, would either defer the purchase or buy a smaller (cleaner) vehicle if the loan rate were 20% instead of 10%. And banks would have more money to divert to transport infrastructure projects at lower interest rates. Wider roads, flyovers and an MRTS. Faster traffic and cleaner air. Now that make a big difference to urban congestion and air quality.
And, I suspect, to the GDP as well, if only years later.
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
7 years after returning to India, I am still getting used to the way in which policies are set in this country. Recently, I read that the Honorable FM exhorted PSU banks to find ways to lower the interest rate on loans. Specifically, he sought lower interest rates to stimulate the auto sector growing at less than the 'target' rate. That got my old moth-balled brain whirring. Isn't that what the doctor ordered for our beleaguered transport sector? Apparently, what we need is not investment in good roads, road-widening and flyovers, more buses, an MRTS or a better traffic management, but more vehicles on the road. More vehicles for urban traffic that moves at a snail's pace negotiating congestion and snarls. More cars, more smoke-belching RAVs, more vans and more trucks on narrow roads getting narrower by the day. Wonder what motivated the FM's request. Does the Government's IO model reveal new vehicle purchases as the best means to increase the GDP? Perhaps it the best means to couch the increase in CO2 emissions required to accept a baseline emissions in a global warming treaty? If so, the minister figures it right that reducing the interest rate charged by banks is the appropriate policy prescription. After all, the upfront fixed cost is the largest obstacle to purchasing vehicles. And if banks can lower the interest rate on loans to an extent that large, smoke-belching vehicles are affordable even to the clerk scrutinizing the loan document, then that must herald good times in the stock market to those invested in the auto and the steel sector. Right?
Wrong. Aren't we doing exactly the opposite of what we should be? Shouldn't our focus be on infrastructure first? Shouldn't infrastructure projects qualify for the lowest interest rate? And even we do wish to lend money for vehicle purchases, shouldn't we price in the externalities caused by vehicles, if not in 'time of day' road pricing and emissions taxes, then in loans rates? Shouldn't loan rates vary with the emissions performance or the size (and fuel) of the vehicle? Personally, and I suspect many among us, would either defer the purchase or buy a smaller (cleaner) vehicle if the loan rate were 20% instead of 10%. And banks would have more money to divert to transport infrastructure projects at lower interest rates. Wider roads, flyovers and an MRTS. Faster traffic and cleaner air. Now that make a big difference to urban congestion and air quality.
And, I suspect, to the GDP as well, if only years later.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Imagine
Imagine
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Imagine a tussle
between haves and the have-nots
the government and the industry
between man and nature
Imagine global warming
add to it some rhetoric
some deception, some demagoguery
'science', 'policy', and yes, politics
and what do you have? Hmm Hmmmmmmmmm
Why do I think WW-III
was almost a better choice?!
Imagine a conspiracy
so deep, so high;
a conspiracy hatched decades ago
a conspiracy to deny
Imagine MNCs of yesterday
leveraging their hold on lawmakers 'from the outside'
buying in to inventions of tomorrow
only to suppress them for technologies past,
holding deprived nations to environmental ransom
So what if it costs the earth
The earth is but a place to despoil!
Whoa! Ho! Ho! Hooooo oo!
Imagine a nexus
a nexus between religion, industry and government
(don't you forget the mafia!)
a nexus that enslaves the common man
Imagine slavery reintroduced
slavery hand-in-glove with discrimination,
slavery in schooling, in recruitment
and what do you have, Ow Ow Owww!
You may say we are a free people
but are we really?
Imagine large FIIs joining hands
with P-notes, derivatives and options
manipulating markets
playing a zero-sum game on mutual funds
even as they make their millions
Imagine a trap,
to net all you whiz-kids
switching from equity to bonds
in just the nick of time
Imagine controlling the IPO pipeline,
timing issues to FII interests
Imagine exchange rate manipulation
and wonder how the rich got richer over the poor
even under a commie government
Hey Heyyyyyyy!
Imagine John Lennon
revealing plots in his ballads
getting shot in the open
Imagine what his last words would have been
Imagine his imagination
and sleep over it?
...
...
Shout, Shout........C'mon, I'm talking to you!
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Imagine a tussle
between haves and the have-nots
the government and the industry
between man and nature
Imagine global warming
add to it some rhetoric
some deception, some demagoguery
'science', 'policy', and yes, politics
and what do you have? Hmm Hmmmmmmmmm
Why do I think WW-III
was almost a better choice?!
Imagine a conspiracy
so deep, so high;
a conspiracy hatched decades ago
a conspiracy to deny
Imagine MNCs of yesterday
leveraging their hold on lawmakers 'from the outside'
buying in to inventions of tomorrow
only to suppress them for technologies past,
holding deprived nations to environmental ransom
So what if it costs the earth
The earth is but a place to despoil!
Whoa! Ho! Ho! Hooooo oo!
Imagine a nexus
a nexus between religion, industry and government
(don't you forget the mafia!)
a nexus that enslaves the common man
Imagine slavery reintroduced
slavery hand-in-glove with discrimination,
slavery in schooling, in recruitment
and what do you have, Ow Ow Owww!
You may say we are a free people
but are we really?
Imagine large FIIs joining hands
with P-notes, derivatives and options
manipulating markets
playing a zero-sum game on mutual funds
even as they make their millions
Imagine a trap,
to net all you whiz-kids
switching from equity to bonds
in just the nick of time
Imagine controlling the IPO pipeline,
timing issues to FII interests
Imagine exchange rate manipulation
and wonder how the rich got richer over the poor
even under a commie government
Hey Heyyyyyyy!
Imagine John Lennon
revealing plots in his ballads
getting shot in the open
Imagine what his last words would have been
Imagine his imagination
and sleep over it?
...
...
Shout, Shout........C'mon, I'm talking to you!
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Rate (C/G)ut the Earth!
Rate (C/G)ut the Earth!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
I am no macro-economist, at least not with the credentials of Greenspan, Bernanke or Dr. Reddy. But I do know that lower inter-bank interest rate set by the Fed cascades down as lower interest rates on home loans and credit card loans on one hand, and to easier credit for businesses on the other. A surprise decision to lower interest rate ultimately means more real disposable income in the hands of the working class and induces higher consumption which in turn spurs production and investment, not to mention a spurt in stock markets globally. Not surprisingly, the boost in consumer confidence and higher economic activity augurs well for the incumbent party that seeks to 'soft-launch' the economy in its campaign to retain power. So what could be wrong with this tried and tested strategy? Nothing, if one did not care beyond the boundaries of one's nation and this generation. But in today's global economy, a move toward a lower interest rate regime by a leader of the industrialized nations, serves as a signal and sets a precedent that is followed by other industrialized and developing nations. The start of a lower interest rate cycle in the US sparks off rate cuts across the globe and turns, what is a purely domestic, even a political, ploy in to a global meltdown of interest rates. And with that restarts the unchecked growth in the chugging economies of South-East Asia.
Now that would not be such a ghastly proposition if the increase in economic activity were environmentally benign. But isn't that the sore spot? Living as we do in 2007, with a century of unchecked carbon emissions behind us and a veritable deluge of emissions on the horizon, even the most trivial increase in global economic activity, sets off alarm bells among global warming experts and environmental policy planners searching desperately for low-cost emissions reductions. In a world where 'luxury and lifestyle' is the mantra of the day, reductions in the cost of borrowing fuel a consumer boom that exacerbates everything from plastic and water pollution to global warming. Makes you wonder if that rate cut was at all warranted. After all, and if you ask me, the sub-prime crisis was carefully orchestrated to provide cover for underground 'just' and 'nefarious' purposes like the Iraq war, energy security and the Cheney Campaign Fund. And I do not buy in to the 'risk of recession' argument that has been bandied about as another reason for the rate cut (Besides, what is the logic behind handing out interest rate cuts to an indebted nation so it may consume and splurge more to 'support' the global economy?). If the FRB governors were at all cognizant of their actions on global economic activity and its environmental repercussions, they would have chosen to raise interest rates, not lower them. It is unbecoming of fed governors, whose decisions alter the course of the global economy and environment, to play in to the political game that has been designed to ensure the election of a Republican President. It will be another 5 to 10 years before we realize the full impact of the rate cut decision on the global environment, by which time it would have already been too late for anything but the most costly and drastic measures, which, predictably, we would be even less likely to undertake. Perhaps the rate cut would then have achieved its purpose? Scorched earth policy. Pray, what is it?
Did you know HSBC has come out with a 'Climate Change Index' to facilitate indexing arbitraging and benchmarking stocks that would be benefited from climate change? Now you may hedge your Carbon Emission Reduction credits, or for that matter, 3-month pork belly futures against 20-year options on climate change stocks. Short-term capital gains attract a 10% tax.
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
I am no macro-economist, at least not with the credentials of Greenspan, Bernanke or Dr. Reddy. But I do know that lower inter-bank interest rate set by the Fed cascades down as lower interest rates on home loans and credit card loans on one hand, and to easier credit for businesses on the other. A surprise decision to lower interest rate ultimately means more real disposable income in the hands of the working class and induces higher consumption which in turn spurs production and investment, not to mention a spurt in stock markets globally. Not surprisingly, the boost in consumer confidence and higher economic activity augurs well for the incumbent party that seeks to 'soft-launch' the economy in its campaign to retain power. So what could be wrong with this tried and tested strategy? Nothing, if one did not care beyond the boundaries of one's nation and this generation. But in today's global economy, a move toward a lower interest rate regime by a leader of the industrialized nations, serves as a signal and sets a precedent that is followed by other industrialized and developing nations. The start of a lower interest rate cycle in the US sparks off rate cuts across the globe and turns, what is a purely domestic, even a political, ploy in to a global meltdown of interest rates. And with that restarts the unchecked growth in the chugging economies of South-East Asia.
Now that would not be such a ghastly proposition if the increase in economic activity were environmentally benign. But isn't that the sore spot? Living as we do in 2007, with a century of unchecked carbon emissions behind us and a veritable deluge of emissions on the horizon, even the most trivial increase in global economic activity, sets off alarm bells among global warming experts and environmental policy planners searching desperately for low-cost emissions reductions. In a world where 'luxury and lifestyle' is the mantra of the day, reductions in the cost of borrowing fuel a consumer boom that exacerbates everything from plastic and water pollution to global warming. Makes you wonder if that rate cut was at all warranted. After all, and if you ask me, the sub-prime crisis was carefully orchestrated to provide cover for underground 'just' and 'nefarious' purposes like the Iraq war, energy security and the Cheney Campaign Fund. And I do not buy in to the 'risk of recession' argument that has been bandied about as another reason for the rate cut (Besides, what is the logic behind handing out interest rate cuts to an indebted nation so it may consume and splurge more to 'support' the global economy?). If the FRB governors were at all cognizant of their actions on global economic activity and its environmental repercussions, they would have chosen to raise interest rates, not lower them. It is unbecoming of fed governors, whose decisions alter the course of the global economy and environment, to play in to the political game that has been designed to ensure the election of a Republican President. It will be another 5 to 10 years before we realize the full impact of the rate cut decision on the global environment, by which time it would have already been too late for anything but the most costly and drastic measures, which, predictably, we would be even less likely to undertake. Perhaps the rate cut would then have achieved its purpose? Scorched earth policy. Pray, what is it?
Did you know HSBC has come out with a 'Climate Change Index' to facilitate indexing arbitraging and benchmarking stocks that would be benefited from climate change? Now you may hedge your Carbon Emission Reduction credits, or for that matter, 3-month pork belly futures against 20-year options on climate change stocks. Short-term capital gains attract a 10% tax.
Saturday, September 29, 2007
Global Students in the Global Commons... Or, Mere Wishful Thinking?
Global Students in the Global Commons....or, Mere Wishful Thinking?
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
I was never the best in my class, at least through school. Nope, not even the top ten. And yet, I wrote a PhD thesis at Penn State. Now I wonder whether all those ahead of me made it better than me. Many did, but some did not. And not because they weren't interested. Foreign studies are quite resource-intensive. The string of tests and exams that must accompany the application cost quite a bundle, as does the application fee at many universities. Add to it the airfare and partial funding, (not to mention the winter jacket and $25 haircuts!), and the numbers turn daunting, especially for those from middle-class backgrounds unwilling to mortgage their parent's home for personal gains.
But where is this leading to. Hmm, ... to a thought quite concrete and serious. The world is rampant with inequality, especially for students. Though societies increasingly prize true intelligence, free flow of intellect is impeded for various reasons – for lack of resources or on account of various global events, strife and conspiracies. An outright genius in one nation misses out the good life for want of opportunities, information, institutions and resources, while another, inferior by orders of magnitude in another nation, climbs to the top merely because he was the least dumb among frogs in the local community well! Then there is the matter of separation of talents and its 'aficionados'. There is little logic to a world in which geniuses in certain fields of art or science live 12 hours and many Berlin Walls away from those who would nurture them and bring out the best in them. That's not equal opportunity, millenium goals not withstanding! In fact, I'd go a step further, even if on a limb, and assert that there are many parents who are secretly disappointed with their children - parents who believe their children do not appreciate the sacrifices made for them; parents who wish their children, for their own good, learned their lesson early in life; parents willing to break out of the traditional mold of protective parenthood to appreciate the need for justice, opportunity and equality in the broader community. What we need, more than empty rhetoric, is optimal re-allocation of the future generations across this diverse world in a manner that maximizes their potential and their contribution to society, even while providing them the right incentives early in life.
Suppose we do not endow children with either citizenship or property at birth. Suppose they must 'earn' their citizenship and their livelihood by competing one-on-one with all students worldwide. True, various inequalities and obstructions persist across nations to this day. For the moment, let us wish that away by providing for a formal system of 'handicaps'. Now suppose students worldwide wrote a global-citizenship-cum-placement exam at the end of 12 years of schooling. On one side, 50 million hopeful students looking forward to the best that this world can offer in terms of citizenship and career, and on the other,130 countries searching for the best minds and citizens of the future from the global commons, and a million corporations searching for their employees of the future. A giant database of participants, their academic records along with their handicaps and their preferences on one side and, on the other, a database of countries, universities, ('step-parents') and future employers lining up for students/citizens/employees of certain interests and abilities. Add an algorithm that maximizes joint utility of market participants, and what you have is an optimal matching of student interests and abilities with country/employer/university needs.
A global academic placement exam that comes with citizenship offers is likely to provide the necessary incentive for citizens of both rich and poor nations to compete, especially if passing the exam enables these budding students to 'corporatize' themselves and trade their worth on the 'academe-cum-citizenship' 'stock' market. Suppose each student participant was given a certain number of 'shares' based on his performance in the exam and his handicap. Suppose each student was permitted to sell his/her shares to fund further studies. The 'student-corporate' could now fund his/her studies at the best university that (s)he can afford and that accepts him/her, with the proceeds of the share sale. Who would buy them? Parents and schools, informed investors, his 'mother country', and especially those shrewd in evaluating the potential of the young will not mind investing in the hope they will benefit when that person's 'networth' multiplies over the years with his earnings and contribution to society. After all, a genius in hand is worth more than a million 'ornery' heads! Wouldn't that be to the common good of children, parents, nations and their economies? (Then again, who would have thought Prasad would end up writing humor columns of no interest to anyone!)
Great visions?........or mere hallucinations?
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
I was never the best in my class, at least through school. Nope, not even the top ten. And yet, I wrote a PhD thesis at Penn State. Now I wonder whether all those ahead of me made it better than me. Many did, but some did not. And not because they weren't interested. Foreign studies are quite resource-intensive. The string of tests and exams that must accompany the application cost quite a bundle, as does the application fee at many universities. Add to it the airfare and partial funding, (not to mention the winter jacket and $25 haircuts!), and the numbers turn daunting, especially for those from middle-class backgrounds unwilling to mortgage their parent's home for personal gains.
But where is this leading to. Hmm, ... to a thought quite concrete and serious. The world is rampant with inequality, especially for students. Though societies increasingly prize true intelligence, free flow of intellect is impeded for various reasons – for lack of resources or on account of various global events, strife and conspiracies. An outright genius in one nation misses out the good life for want of opportunities, information, institutions and resources, while another, inferior by orders of magnitude in another nation, climbs to the top merely because he was the least dumb among frogs in the local community well! Then there is the matter of separation of talents and its 'aficionados'. There is little logic to a world in which geniuses in certain fields of art or science live 12 hours and many Berlin Walls away from those who would nurture them and bring out the best in them. That's not equal opportunity, millenium goals not withstanding! In fact, I'd go a step further, even if on a limb, and assert that there are many parents who are secretly disappointed with their children - parents who believe their children do not appreciate the sacrifices made for them; parents who wish their children, for their own good, learned their lesson early in life; parents willing to break out of the traditional mold of protective parenthood to appreciate the need for justice, opportunity and equality in the broader community. What we need, more than empty rhetoric, is optimal re-allocation of the future generations across this diverse world in a manner that maximizes their potential and their contribution to society, even while providing them the right incentives early in life.
Suppose we do not endow children with either citizenship or property at birth. Suppose they must 'earn' their citizenship and their livelihood by competing one-on-one with all students worldwide. True, various inequalities and obstructions persist across nations to this day. For the moment, let us wish that away by providing for a formal system of 'handicaps'. Now suppose students worldwide wrote a global-citizenship-cum-placement exam at the end of 12 years of schooling. On one side, 50 million hopeful students looking forward to the best that this world can offer in terms of citizenship and career, and on the other,130 countries searching for the best minds and citizens of the future from the global commons, and a million corporations searching for their employees of the future. A giant database of participants, their academic records along with their handicaps and their preferences on one side and, on the other, a database of countries, universities, ('step-parents') and future employers lining up for students/citizens/employees of certain interests and abilities. Add an algorithm that maximizes joint utility of market participants, and what you have is an optimal matching of student interests and abilities with country/employer/university needs.
A global academic placement exam that comes with citizenship offers is likely to provide the necessary incentive for citizens of both rich and poor nations to compete, especially if passing the exam enables these budding students to 'corporatize' themselves and trade their worth on the 'academe-cum-citizenship' 'stock' market. Suppose each student participant was given a certain number of 'shares' based on his performance in the exam and his handicap. Suppose each student was permitted to sell his/her shares to fund further studies. The 'student-corporate' could now fund his/her studies at the best university that (s)he can afford and that accepts him/her, with the proceeds of the share sale. Who would buy them? Parents and schools, informed investors, his 'mother country', and especially those shrewd in evaluating the potential of the young will not mind investing in the hope they will benefit when that person's 'networth' multiplies over the years with his earnings and contribution to society. After all, a genius in hand is worth more than a million 'ornery' heads! Wouldn't that be to the common good of children, parents, nations and their economies? (Then again, who would have thought Prasad would end up writing humor columns of no interest to anyone!)
Great visions?........or mere hallucinations?
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Trade Your Personal GHG Emissions Rights
Trade Your Personal GHG Emissions Rights
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
These days, with the cacophony of words, ads and noises from people and machines, one is not sure whether a certain thought is 'original', smoked out and fed back in with a minor suggestion, transmitted by 'telepathy', heard around or 'stimulated' as part of an IPR test (or is merely a regurgitation of what has already been published). Yet, these considerations should not matter when an idea is in the interest of global commons. So, hear ye, hear one, hear all!
We are already in an era where one could buy in to emissions offsets to pay for the environmental excesses of our actions. Those environmentally conscious buy emissions offsets, ie, reductions in emissions elsewhere, for their business or leisure activities, for example, flying. As an economist, I have mixed reactions. Emissions offsets are an interesting means of obtaining voluntarily participation from the population at large in containing global warming. This is particularly important when our heads of states are unable to agree to a common charter of emissions reduction strategy. But it worries the theoretician in me that the emissions offsets are not strictly the classical optimal tax on emissions-generating activities. The Offsets firm charges you for every gram of CO2 attributable to you. As to how they arrive at that estimate is a mystery. How would you 'divvy up' emissions from a plane flight across the 20 first class passengers, 30 business class and 200 economy class passengers, some of whom would not have traveled if the fare had not been discounted heavily? And what about those bags of mail accompanying your baggage? More importantly, how does the firm know how much of the externality is internalized in the fare and how much not? After all, aviation fuels and air travel are taxed and the fact that the tax is for revenue purposes does not detract from its environmental qualities. Right? So, do these offset firms compute the amount of tax reflected in the fares with different degrees of discount in them? I'd be surprised if they did. More importantly, do they achieve efficiency and global participation? I think not.
If it is truly global participation that we desire, why not consider creating a personal lifetime quota of GHG emissions – call it 'personal emission rights' (as opposed to endowing the industry with the right to emit)? Every human being could be endowed with a tradable and bankable lifetime quota of GHG emissions on birth. Those who wish to engage in emissions-releasing activities, whether individuals, industry or the government, would need to buy emissions units from the online market. Sounds interesting? It is, at least on paper. That quota could be, perhaps should be, equal for every citizen of the world. To grapple with the rising trend in global warming, it might be necessary to denominate the bequeath in the prevailing and projected CO2 concentrations. Higher the ambient CO2 concentration, the lower the initial bequeath. As an add-on rider, one could even add or invalidate an annual emissions amount from all 'quota holders' depending on the change in ambient CO2 concentration.
One may buy or sell emissions units from the online market participants much like you bank, buy or sell stocks and ETFs. Every purchase of airline ticket, cruise vacation or car rental, a bag of rice or atta and the likes would attract a deduction from your emissions quota when you swipe your card to pay. A child born to a wealthy with a lifetime quota of, say 10 tonnes GHG, could buy emissions units from a child born in Sub-Saharan Darfur, thus paying for his/her environmentally damaging lifestyle even while enriching the seller for accepting a lower standard of living. Call this an anti-poverty strategy, if you would so like to. The lifetime quota provides opportunity for parents and the child to plan important activities over a lifetime, in particular, GHG-intensive activities like weddings, vacations, or the purchase of a car. If the price of quota units were sufficiently high, one could even postpone purchases or trade the vacation in (Hey, $5000 dollars for missing out on a week's vacation ain't bad, at least for those not on the World's 100 Richest list!). Some would trade their quota units for a lumpsum at an opportune time (for tuition perhaps?). Others, like the pious in Tibet, could collect a handsome pot for their next life if they so wished, or 'bequeath' it to the aged or paraplegics wishing to fly in to the 'tequila sunrise' or the 'sunset on Santa Monica boulevard'.
As for business, clearly, industries, firms and corporations would need to buy emissions units from the general public to 'fund' their emissions-releasing activities. The price of emissions would be dictated by demand and supply in an online global emissions market. Firms would plan their investments and activities taking cognizance of their GHG-intensiveness, and the price of quota units. A basic materials refiner would pay much more than a computer chip maker, in the process internalizing his release of GHG emissions. As the public feels more apprehensive of global warming, they would have the option to 'retire' banked emissions units, thus decreasing supply and increasing the going price of emissions units. This would provide a signal to the industry to move to cleaner technology, reduce production or increase product prices – eventually resulting in moderation of economic activity and a reduction in emissions. Online global trading permits spatially and temporally efficient allocation of activities. The system puts a price on CO2 emissions – a price that is endogenously determined by the perception of participants in the emissions market. It has all the advantages of an emissions trading systems proposed by environmental economists and more. It induces a competition for low-emission activities and prods the adoption of cleaner technologies as a means to reduce costs and increase profits. It brings about global re-allocation of production and consumption and redistributes wealth in an equity-enhancing manner.
I could say more, but time is fast running out on the blue planet. To close this blog, as useful as the concept of emissions offsets is in starting a trend of voluntary participation in global warming reductions, what we need is an online global, emissions units banking and trading facility, not merely voluntary participation in emissions offset. How I wish this system were retroactive. Haven't driven a car or traveled on plane for ages now!
Hey, no cruise vacations in Alaskan waters with scantily-clad babes either!!! Hey!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
These days, with the cacophony of words, ads and noises from people and machines, one is not sure whether a certain thought is 'original', smoked out and fed back in with a minor suggestion, transmitted by 'telepathy', heard around or 'stimulated' as part of an IPR test (or is merely a regurgitation of what has already been published). Yet, these considerations should not matter when an idea is in the interest of global commons. So, hear ye, hear one, hear all!
We are already in an era where one could buy in to emissions offsets to pay for the environmental excesses of our actions. Those environmentally conscious buy emissions offsets, ie, reductions in emissions elsewhere, for their business or leisure activities, for example, flying. As an economist, I have mixed reactions. Emissions offsets are an interesting means of obtaining voluntarily participation from the population at large in containing global warming. This is particularly important when our heads of states are unable to agree to a common charter of emissions reduction strategy. But it worries the theoretician in me that the emissions offsets are not strictly the classical optimal tax on emissions-generating activities. The Offsets firm charges you for every gram of CO2 attributable to you. As to how they arrive at that estimate is a mystery. How would you 'divvy up' emissions from a plane flight across the 20 first class passengers, 30 business class and 200 economy class passengers, some of whom would not have traveled if the fare had not been discounted heavily? And what about those bags of mail accompanying your baggage? More importantly, how does the firm know how much of the externality is internalized in the fare and how much not? After all, aviation fuels and air travel are taxed and the fact that the tax is for revenue purposes does not detract from its environmental qualities. Right? So, do these offset firms compute the amount of tax reflected in the fares with different degrees of discount in them? I'd be surprised if they did. More importantly, do they achieve efficiency and global participation? I think not.
If it is truly global participation that we desire, why not consider creating a personal lifetime quota of GHG emissions – call it 'personal emission rights' (as opposed to endowing the industry with the right to emit)? Every human being could be endowed with a tradable and bankable lifetime quota of GHG emissions on birth. Those who wish to engage in emissions-releasing activities, whether individuals, industry or the government, would need to buy emissions units from the online market. Sounds interesting? It is, at least on paper. That quota could be, perhaps should be, equal for every citizen of the world. To grapple with the rising trend in global warming, it might be necessary to denominate the bequeath in the prevailing and projected CO2 concentrations. Higher the ambient CO2 concentration, the lower the initial bequeath. As an add-on rider, one could even add or invalidate an annual emissions amount from all 'quota holders' depending on the change in ambient CO2 concentration.
One may buy or sell emissions units from the online market participants much like you bank, buy or sell stocks and ETFs. Every purchase of airline ticket, cruise vacation or car rental, a bag of rice or atta and the likes would attract a deduction from your emissions quota when you swipe your card to pay. A child born to a wealthy with a lifetime quota of, say 10 tonnes GHG, could buy emissions units from a child born in Sub-Saharan Darfur, thus paying for his/her environmentally damaging lifestyle even while enriching the seller for accepting a lower standard of living. Call this an anti-poverty strategy, if you would so like to. The lifetime quota provides opportunity for parents and the child to plan important activities over a lifetime, in particular, GHG-intensive activities like weddings, vacations, or the purchase of a car. If the price of quota units were sufficiently high, one could even postpone purchases or trade the vacation in (Hey, $5000 dollars for missing out on a week's vacation ain't bad, at least for those not on the World's 100 Richest list!). Some would trade their quota units for a lumpsum at an opportune time (for tuition perhaps?). Others, like the pious in Tibet, could collect a handsome pot for their next life if they so wished, or 'bequeath' it to the aged or paraplegics wishing to fly in to the 'tequila sunrise' or the 'sunset on Santa Monica boulevard'.
As for business, clearly, industries, firms and corporations would need to buy emissions units from the general public to 'fund' their emissions-releasing activities. The price of emissions would be dictated by demand and supply in an online global emissions market. Firms would plan their investments and activities taking cognizance of their GHG-intensiveness, and the price of quota units. A basic materials refiner would pay much more than a computer chip maker, in the process internalizing his release of GHG emissions. As the public feels more apprehensive of global warming, they would have the option to 'retire' banked emissions units, thus decreasing supply and increasing the going price of emissions units. This would provide a signal to the industry to move to cleaner technology, reduce production or increase product prices – eventually resulting in moderation of economic activity and a reduction in emissions. Online global trading permits spatially and temporally efficient allocation of activities. The system puts a price on CO2 emissions – a price that is endogenously determined by the perception of participants in the emissions market. It has all the advantages of an emissions trading systems proposed by environmental economists and more. It induces a competition for low-emission activities and prods the adoption of cleaner technologies as a means to reduce costs and increase profits. It brings about global re-allocation of production and consumption and redistributes wealth in an equity-enhancing manner.
I could say more, but time is fast running out on the blue planet. To close this blog, as useful as the concept of emissions offsets is in starting a trend of voluntary participation in global warming reductions, what we need is an online global, emissions units banking and trading facility, not merely voluntary participation in emissions offset. How I wish this system were retroactive. Haven't driven a car or traveled on plane for ages now!
Hey, no cruise vacations in Alaskan waters with scantily-clad babes either!!! Hey!
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Public (Sector) and Private (Equity) Hallucinations
Public (Sector) and Private (Equity) Hallucinations
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Living in a socialist country with government-sponsored 'public sector' enterprises, it is easy to forget what the objectives of these entities are. In truth, they are oriented more to the nation's cause of infrastructure development, to a less-endorsed extent employment generation, and, as I would like to (mis)believe, to raise the per-capita consumption of various goods and services (why else would they compare inter-country per-capita figures in Planning Commission documents?). With government appointed board members who take their orders from their political masters at the Ministry, these entities also serve to control investment, prices and inventories in the market, not to mention stock up goods meant for subsidized distribution. I half-suspect, the government plays a strategic 'duopolistic' game with the private players – the government's interpretation of the 'dominant firm' type competition!
Anyway, the point I would like to make here is that different entities have different objectives that influence their market behavior. A PSU perforce seeks to satisfy its Ministry (the Government typically owns a majority if not a overwhelming share of stock). And the Minister is not satisfied with a dividend cheque. The PSUs must fund his pet projects, favor his clients (So what if the tender is closed; reopen it and pull my contractor in), share in his obligations, provide him opportunities to make welfare announcements of various kinds and, of course, pull in funds for his political masters even while negotiating wages and benefits with various cadres of workers and officers. And don't forget the obligation to participate in national cause of reducing inflation by cutting back prices! I'd be surprised if any of these PSUs even have an optimization model to guide their actions.
Talking about profit max models, gone are the days when the company economist could plug in prices in to his LP model that spit out production of various products at various production sites along with a matrix of inputs. In these days of stock options, commodity hedging, derivatives trading and switching strategic regimes, the conventional optimization model merely achieves static efficiency – at most. Depending on the ownership structure of the firm (promoter's stake and the amount/nature of stock options), 'policy stability', firm's investment plans and market structure, a true inter-temporal model of profit maximization could be very complicated indeed. It is an open question whether our managers in the public and private sectors appreciate these complexities. It's another question whether they should even take cognizance of it (In the land of inferiors, laissez faire is immortal!)
Did you say 'laissez faire'? Enter the Dragon, I mean the private equity firms – staffed by those shadowy smart necks who did not socialize in the Corporate Strategy lecture at your Ivy League College! Admittedly, there are different kinds of private equities with different motives, but I mean those who takeover a (publicly-listed, perhaps loss-making) business, turn it around, and exit when its stock price zooms by a factor of a hundred – all in a period of a decade or so. Surely, they do not go by your profit max model? Profit max move aside. It is the day of EPS growth-based optimization models – the only denominator that investors recognize! Pray, what is that? These private equity players have a gameplan that achieves their goal that is squarely focused on actions that turn the stock attractive in the market. Engineering mergers and bankruptcies, working with the elected representatives to modify regulations and the books to their advantage, reappraising markets and product mix across the quality dimension, product differentiation, focused advertising around brand-recognition, focusing on IPR-protected markets and anticipating the future with knowledge of yet unpublished technological advances – these are the hallmarks of these entities. Behind them, I presume, is the unholy troika of MIT brains with hybrid financial-economic-accounting models, large international consulting organizations and strategic investors with supercomputers that churn all the data that the CIA and World Bank/IFC could conceivably gather to evaluate the course of international economies, stock markets and sectoral trends under alternative strategies. What chance do 'mortals' have against these behemoths?
Makes you wonder, if they are so efficient at their game, why not turn our sick PSUs over to these guys? They could even share in the spoils when these PSUs are offered in a public IPO following the turnaround. Food for thought!
More hallucinations, anyone?
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Living in a socialist country with government-sponsored 'public sector' enterprises, it is easy to forget what the objectives of these entities are. In truth, they are oriented more to the nation's cause of infrastructure development, to a less-endorsed extent employment generation, and, as I would like to (mis)believe, to raise the per-capita consumption of various goods and services (why else would they compare inter-country per-capita figures in Planning Commission documents?). With government appointed board members who take their orders from their political masters at the Ministry, these entities also serve to control investment, prices and inventories in the market, not to mention stock up goods meant for subsidized distribution. I half-suspect, the government plays a strategic 'duopolistic' game with the private players – the government's interpretation of the 'dominant firm' type competition!
Anyway, the point I would like to make here is that different entities have different objectives that influence their market behavior. A PSU perforce seeks to satisfy its Ministry (the Government typically owns a majority if not a overwhelming share of stock). And the Minister is not satisfied with a dividend cheque. The PSUs must fund his pet projects, favor his clients (So what if the tender is closed; reopen it and pull my contractor in), share in his obligations, provide him opportunities to make welfare announcements of various kinds and, of course, pull in funds for his political masters even while negotiating wages and benefits with various cadres of workers and officers. And don't forget the obligation to participate in national cause of reducing inflation by cutting back prices! I'd be surprised if any of these PSUs even have an optimization model to guide their actions.
Talking about profit max models, gone are the days when the company economist could plug in prices in to his LP model that spit out production of various products at various production sites along with a matrix of inputs. In these days of stock options, commodity hedging, derivatives trading and switching strategic regimes, the conventional optimization model merely achieves static efficiency – at most. Depending on the ownership structure of the firm (promoter's stake and the amount/nature of stock options), 'policy stability', firm's investment plans and market structure, a true inter-temporal model of profit maximization could be very complicated indeed. It is an open question whether our managers in the public and private sectors appreciate these complexities. It's another question whether they should even take cognizance of it (In the land of inferiors, laissez faire is immortal!)
Did you say 'laissez faire'? Enter the Dragon, I mean the private equity firms – staffed by those shadowy smart necks who did not socialize in the Corporate Strategy lecture at your Ivy League College! Admittedly, there are different kinds of private equities with different motives, but I mean those who takeover a (publicly-listed, perhaps loss-making) business, turn it around, and exit when its stock price zooms by a factor of a hundred – all in a period of a decade or so. Surely, they do not go by your profit max model? Profit max move aside. It is the day of EPS growth-based optimization models – the only denominator that investors recognize! Pray, what is that? These private equity players have a gameplan that achieves their goal that is squarely focused on actions that turn the stock attractive in the market. Engineering mergers and bankruptcies, working with the elected representatives to modify regulations and the books to their advantage, reappraising markets and product mix across the quality dimension, product differentiation, focused advertising around brand-recognition, focusing on IPR-protected markets and anticipating the future with knowledge of yet unpublished technological advances – these are the hallmarks of these entities. Behind them, I presume, is the unholy troika of MIT brains with hybrid financial-economic-accounting models, large international consulting organizations and strategic investors with supercomputers that churn all the data that the CIA and World Bank/IFC could conceivably gather to evaluate the course of international economies, stock markets and sectoral trends under alternative strategies. What chance do 'mortals' have against these behemoths?
Makes you wonder, if they are so efficient at their game, why not turn our sick PSUs over to these guys? They could even share in the spoils when these PSUs are offered in a public IPO following the turnaround. Food for thought!
More hallucinations, anyone?
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Pollute Not the Oceans
Pollute Not the Oceans
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
It was, with Africa, the Arctics and the Antarctic, one of the ultimate unknowns, the ultimate expanse, the fear of many a mariner in the centuries gone by. No longer. Today, practically every inch of the ocean is mapped. No sea, strait or island has escaped the marauding humans. It is perhaps an unwritten law of nature that destruction follows where man sets foot. After turning the atmosphere and land in to the toilet of the industry, overrunning lakes, and polluting rivers, it is now our hallowed duty to commit the ultimate insult to God's world. Let's exploit the purity of the oceans as well!
Not that it has escaped our attention. Honestly, if the oceans are yet sought after, it is not because we haven't tried to despoil it. Those ignorant or otherwise not informed may wonder if human activity has left any mark on the ocean systems. For one, the ocean waters are noticeably warmer, thanks to human activity. A warmer ocean means more evaporation, more humidity and rainy afternoons. Not too long ago, the media reported changes in ocean currents, thanks to global warming. Imagine a world with the Labrador current turning warmer and exacerbating the melting of the ice in the Arctic circle. Imagine the hapless creatures of the deep when their migratory and reproductive patterns are overturned and overrun by human-induced climate change. Sea-level rise caused by melting of polar ice caps could overrun beaches and coastal eco-systems that took centuries to develop. We discharge treated (and untreated) sewage in to the oceans, sometime not half a kilometer from beach revelers. The floods wash in to oceans stuff that escapes the sewers. Oil spills during crude/product transfer at the port or from grounding of tankers make news headlines ever so often. Add to that the widening and deepening of ports and shallow straits, land reclamation from shallow seas, sub-marine archaeological digs, mid-sea dumping of garbage, the discharge of water and sewage from cruise liners, discharges from deep-sea oil production, and the ever expanding global trade by sea, and what do you have? We don't need a rocket scientist to tell us that human influences are fundamentally, and perhaps irreversibly, altering the physical, chemical and biological systems of the oceans and that could mean the difference between life and death for marine creatures.
The more I think of these matters, the more I am convinced that human economic systems will always expand by exploiting unpriced resources and their services (land, air, lakes, rivers and oceans) without limits (or more correctly, until resource deterioration hurts the capitalist's purse). We could price these resources in, but achieving that through regulations in 110 countries with 22 different types of legislative/judicial processes amid the not infrequent changes of governments, despite the Sea Conventions and IMO rules, can be a very discouraging experience. Why not create a single global stewardship of the oceans, much like the GEF, but smaller and more focused, and endow it with the right to police and exact payments for various services provided by oceans across the seven seas? If a Sustainable Oceans Administration were funded by matching its profits (revenues from services net of costs of environmental remediation) from the stewardship of the oceans, then, it would have the incentive to permit truly sustainable exploitation of the oceans. It would have, on one hand, the knowledge to price ocean services according to demand and the damage imposed, and on the other, the werewithal to fund corrective actions that limit environmental damage to the oceans.
What's that I hear? ..... Sure, we could wait until the sea turns green from human avarice and apathy!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
It was, with Africa, the Arctics and the Antarctic, one of the ultimate unknowns, the ultimate expanse, the fear of many a mariner in the centuries gone by. No longer. Today, practically every inch of the ocean is mapped. No sea, strait or island has escaped the marauding humans. It is perhaps an unwritten law of nature that destruction follows where man sets foot. After turning the atmosphere and land in to the toilet of the industry, overrunning lakes, and polluting rivers, it is now our hallowed duty to commit the ultimate insult to God's world. Let's exploit the purity of the oceans as well!
Not that it has escaped our attention. Honestly, if the oceans are yet sought after, it is not because we haven't tried to despoil it. Those ignorant or otherwise not informed may wonder if human activity has left any mark on the ocean systems. For one, the ocean waters are noticeably warmer, thanks to human activity. A warmer ocean means more evaporation, more humidity and rainy afternoons. Not too long ago, the media reported changes in ocean currents, thanks to global warming. Imagine a world with the Labrador current turning warmer and exacerbating the melting of the ice in the Arctic circle. Imagine the hapless creatures of the deep when their migratory and reproductive patterns are overturned and overrun by human-induced climate change. Sea-level rise caused by melting of polar ice caps could overrun beaches and coastal eco-systems that took centuries to develop. We discharge treated (and untreated) sewage in to the oceans, sometime not half a kilometer from beach revelers. The floods wash in to oceans stuff that escapes the sewers. Oil spills during crude/product transfer at the port or from grounding of tankers make news headlines ever so often. Add to that the widening and deepening of ports and shallow straits, land reclamation from shallow seas, sub-marine archaeological digs, mid-sea dumping of garbage, the discharge of water and sewage from cruise liners, discharges from deep-sea oil production, and the ever expanding global trade by sea, and what do you have? We don't need a rocket scientist to tell us that human influences are fundamentally, and perhaps irreversibly, altering the physical, chemical and biological systems of the oceans and that could mean the difference between life and death for marine creatures.
The more I think of these matters, the more I am convinced that human economic systems will always expand by exploiting unpriced resources and their services (land, air, lakes, rivers and oceans) without limits (or more correctly, until resource deterioration hurts the capitalist's purse). We could price these resources in, but achieving that through regulations in 110 countries with 22 different types of legislative/judicial processes amid the not infrequent changes of governments, despite the Sea Conventions and IMO rules, can be a very discouraging experience. Why not create a single global stewardship of the oceans, much like the GEF, but smaller and more focused, and endow it with the right to police and exact payments for various services provided by oceans across the seven seas? If a Sustainable Oceans Administration were funded by matching its profits (revenues from services net of costs of environmental remediation) from the stewardship of the oceans, then, it would have the incentive to permit truly sustainable exploitation of the oceans. It would have, on one hand, the knowledge to price ocean services according to demand and the damage imposed, and on the other, the werewithal to fund corrective actions that limit environmental damage to the oceans.
What's that I hear? ..... Sure, we could wait until the sea turns green from human avarice and apathy!
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
The Nuclear Ballot Dance
The Nuclear Ballot Dance
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
General elections are not exactly 'once in a blue moon' events. Though meant to occur quinquennially, I suspect they are held more often, perhaps every three-four years on average. Each election is touted as a momentous, historically important event; yet, few are as important as the one being suggested among political circles these days. Dissension in the UPA coalition regarding the 123 agreement and comments by Advani give credence to rumours of an impending election. With the economy in overdrive, the monsoons obliging, and inflation tamed for the immediate future, this is as good an opportunity that Sonia will ever get to 'spring a surprise'.
An election is not just the choice of one candidate or party over another to rule us. It is an occasion to take stock of promises, achievements and failures, and prepare the nation to renew the battle and confront various issues – from the past and of the future. The nuclear agreement with the US is a once in a century or country's lifetime sort of deal. It stands as the testament to the resolve of two nations to forge a peaceful nuclear future. Standing at the threshold of a peaceful nuclear future, as we do, today, this election, whether scheduled for the next month or next year, is one of unparalleled importance to the country. Undoubtedly, it will be labeled a nuclear ballot – a ballot that the US will watch closely to gauge the interest and involvement, opinions, preferences and resolve of India's masses with regard to the 123 accord.
Admittedly, there are many issues. Should nuclear treaties be negotiated by a coalition government in which the right hand would rather not know what the left is doing? Should political parties explicitly come out with their position on the 123 agreement and on the larger question of nuclear disarmament vs nuclear detente (and will they stick to those positions if surprised at the ballot box)? What does the 123 agreement imply for our nuclear fortunes vis-a-vis Pakistan and China or for that matter, nuclear terrorism (now that a nuke can be camouflaged inside a briefcase and detonated by remote instruction from the ISS!)? More to the point, should voters declare their nuclear preferences independent of their vote for party candidates, ie, should we add an issue ballot to the election? In any case, how do we deal with issues that affect future generations, perhaps the country's future for centuries, not just the next 3 years and 49 weeks?
Most parties have come out with their stand on the matter. Not surprisingly and apparently, the Left has back stabbed the UPA from within the government, stalling the ratification process. But that raises the question as to why the US would negotiate for years with a left-supported coalition government? Surely, they don't want a general election to ratify the treaty? Something is amiss, if you ask me. Perhaps the Left is but a mouthpiece for the NDA, which has strategically chosen not to take a hardline positions ahead of the polls (speaking for another is a tried and tested strategy of evasion). Perhaps the US seeks the ratification of the Indian people – a general election - to the agreement? Perhaps it is the US Presidential elections. Perhaps Global Warming politics. Perhaps a little of each. Whatever the truth, the prospect of elections are real. That brings to the fore the question of 'bundled agenda'. How will the left, the right and regional parties rank and group their platforms on various issues? Will political parties take their stand on 123 taking account of the leanings of their supporters, or will they try to have them buy in to it by offering a 'candy' of an 'FDI funded' stock market? Will the traditional vote banks stand if the left does a 180 degree turn on the nuke issue? Thankfully, it seems that the 123 agreement will not bring about specific-sector biases. Thus, a decision one way or another will only affect our overall prospects, not the fertilizer or fuel subsidy – at least in the short-run. Besides, the fact that 'bread and butter issues' dominate the reasoning of the common man, implies that a popular mandate for one party cannot be interpreted as endorsement of its stand on the 123 agreement. Thus, the return of UPA or, more realistically, some form of Congress-led coalition cannot be presumed the nation's approval apropos the agreement (unless, it so campaigns – which it is unlikely to). For this reason, the only resolution to this dilemma is, perhaps, a parallel issue ballot on the 123 agreement with the general election. We should require parties to explicitly state their position on the proposed agreement as part of their campaign platform. Citizens then vote twice at the ballot box, once for a government, and once regarding the 123 agreement. In the latter ballot, the vote could be for a party or a yes/no on the agreement or its significant issues/clauses. In this manner, the entire country could be polled and its opinion reflected in our final decision on the nuclear agreement.
An average voter would ask what the costs and benefits of signing on to the 123 agreement are. For one, signing an accord with the US relieves us of participating in an escalating nuclear cold war of nerves with Pakistan and China. A war can devastate a country by wiping out decades of progress and handicap its future beside washing away trillions in wealth. Ask the Iraqis. Peace is worth a lot of money. India could divert the ballooning defense budget to peacetime needs and meet its goals of better infrastructure, universal education, a better equipped law and order machinery and basic human needs (In layman's terms, a hundred schools instead of one Agni ICBM). With the US as an ally, we could forge commercial alliances that exploit their advanced technology and our human resource expertise. The US gains a much-needed foothold in to South-Asia to counterbalance the growing might of the Chinese and the dangerous impatience and resentment in Pakistan. And of course, George Bush may claim another feather in the cap in his quest for nuclear demilitarization. There are costs too. We will no longer be a NAM country, bound as we will be in to sub-serving the cause of the US (not that non-alignment ever mattered much). Our reactors and research centers will be under 'IAEA' inspection. We know what that means. Our researchers will be put under the horseblinds of the US and the IAEA. Funds meant for thorium-cycle research will be diverted to food irradiation and nuclear refining of crude oil. And India will take a back-seat in global warming matters and follow the lead of a country that has anticipated the phenomenon so well that it now benefits both by adapting and responding to it. (Hell, we might as well grow wheat on the land leased underneath the Iceland icecap!). A benefits-maximizing decision in the context of these and other strategic angles is well-nigh impossible. But that should not stop our politicians, policymakers and indeed, us citizens, from examining and weighing the 123 agreement in different contexts before coming to a decision. It is our duty to act pro-actively and ensure that our country takes an informed decision on the nuclear pact with the West - one that could be the first step in our eventual integration with the G-8, but could also be our doom if we choose to play petty politics that has many a time made our democracy the laughing stock around the world.
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
General elections are not exactly 'once in a blue moon' events. Though meant to occur quinquennially, I suspect they are held more often, perhaps every three-four years on average. Each election is touted as a momentous, historically important event; yet, few are as important as the one being suggested among political circles these days. Dissension in the UPA coalition regarding the 123 agreement and comments by Advani give credence to rumours of an impending election. With the economy in overdrive, the monsoons obliging, and inflation tamed for the immediate future, this is as good an opportunity that Sonia will ever get to 'spring a surprise'.
An election is not just the choice of one candidate or party over another to rule us. It is an occasion to take stock of promises, achievements and failures, and prepare the nation to renew the battle and confront various issues – from the past and of the future. The nuclear agreement with the US is a once in a century or country's lifetime sort of deal. It stands as the testament to the resolve of two nations to forge a peaceful nuclear future. Standing at the threshold of a peaceful nuclear future, as we do, today, this election, whether scheduled for the next month or next year, is one of unparalleled importance to the country. Undoubtedly, it will be labeled a nuclear ballot – a ballot that the US will watch closely to gauge the interest and involvement, opinions, preferences and resolve of India's masses with regard to the 123 accord.
Admittedly, there are many issues. Should nuclear treaties be negotiated by a coalition government in which the right hand would rather not know what the left is doing? Should political parties explicitly come out with their position on the 123 agreement and on the larger question of nuclear disarmament vs nuclear detente (and will they stick to those positions if surprised at the ballot box)? What does the 123 agreement imply for our nuclear fortunes vis-a-vis Pakistan and China or for that matter, nuclear terrorism (now that a nuke can be camouflaged inside a briefcase and detonated by remote instruction from the ISS!)? More to the point, should voters declare their nuclear preferences independent of their vote for party candidates, ie, should we add an issue ballot to the election? In any case, how do we deal with issues that affect future generations, perhaps the country's future for centuries, not just the next 3 years and 49 weeks?
Most parties have come out with their stand on the matter. Not surprisingly and apparently, the Left has back stabbed the UPA from within the government, stalling the ratification process. But that raises the question as to why the US would negotiate for years with a left-supported coalition government? Surely, they don't want a general election to ratify the treaty? Something is amiss, if you ask me. Perhaps the Left is but a mouthpiece for the NDA, which has strategically chosen not to take a hardline positions ahead of the polls (speaking for another is a tried and tested strategy of evasion). Perhaps the US seeks the ratification of the Indian people – a general election - to the agreement? Perhaps it is the US Presidential elections. Perhaps Global Warming politics. Perhaps a little of each. Whatever the truth, the prospect of elections are real. That brings to the fore the question of 'bundled agenda'. How will the left, the right and regional parties rank and group their platforms on various issues? Will political parties take their stand on 123 taking account of the leanings of their supporters, or will they try to have them buy in to it by offering a 'candy' of an 'FDI funded' stock market? Will the traditional vote banks stand if the left does a 180 degree turn on the nuke issue? Thankfully, it seems that the 123 agreement will not bring about specific-sector biases. Thus, a decision one way or another will only affect our overall prospects, not the fertilizer or fuel subsidy – at least in the short-run. Besides, the fact that 'bread and butter issues' dominate the reasoning of the common man, implies that a popular mandate for one party cannot be interpreted as endorsement of its stand on the 123 agreement. Thus, the return of UPA or, more realistically, some form of Congress-led coalition cannot be presumed the nation's approval apropos the agreement (unless, it so campaigns – which it is unlikely to). For this reason, the only resolution to this dilemma is, perhaps, a parallel issue ballot on the 123 agreement with the general election. We should require parties to explicitly state their position on the proposed agreement as part of their campaign platform. Citizens then vote twice at the ballot box, once for a government, and once regarding the 123 agreement. In the latter ballot, the vote could be for a party or a yes/no on the agreement or its significant issues/clauses. In this manner, the entire country could be polled and its opinion reflected in our final decision on the nuclear agreement.
An average voter would ask what the costs and benefits of signing on to the 123 agreement are. For one, signing an accord with the US relieves us of participating in an escalating nuclear cold war of nerves with Pakistan and China. A war can devastate a country by wiping out decades of progress and handicap its future beside washing away trillions in wealth. Ask the Iraqis. Peace is worth a lot of money. India could divert the ballooning defense budget to peacetime needs and meet its goals of better infrastructure, universal education, a better equipped law and order machinery and basic human needs (In layman's terms, a hundred schools instead of one Agni ICBM). With the US as an ally, we could forge commercial alliances that exploit their advanced technology and our human resource expertise. The US gains a much-needed foothold in to South-Asia to counterbalance the growing might of the Chinese and the dangerous impatience and resentment in Pakistan. And of course, George Bush may claim another feather in the cap in his quest for nuclear demilitarization. There are costs too. We will no longer be a NAM country, bound as we will be in to sub-serving the cause of the US (not that non-alignment ever mattered much). Our reactors and research centers will be under 'IAEA' inspection. We know what that means. Our researchers will be put under the horseblinds of the US and the IAEA. Funds meant for thorium-cycle research will be diverted to food irradiation and nuclear refining of crude oil. And India will take a back-seat in global warming matters and follow the lead of a country that has anticipated the phenomenon so well that it now benefits both by adapting and responding to it. (Hell, we might as well grow wheat on the land leased underneath the Iceland icecap!). A benefits-maximizing decision in the context of these and other strategic angles is well-nigh impossible. But that should not stop our politicians, policymakers and indeed, us citizens, from examining and weighing the 123 agreement in different contexts before coming to a decision. It is our duty to act pro-actively and ensure that our country takes an informed decision on the nuclear pact with the West - one that could be the first step in our eventual integration with the G-8, but could also be our doom if we choose to play petty politics that has many a time made our democracy the laughing stock around the world.
Monday, September 10, 2007
BEAM THE US PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WORLDWIDE
BEAM THE US PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE WORLDWIDE
(Read on, some commie rhetoric, notwithstanding!)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
In the days of past, The Hindu carried a column - a narrow one at that on its international page, mentioning the US presidential elections and how the candidates fared in the debate perhaps on its international page. There was no talk of it in the buses, offices or at the canteens. In fact, I suspect only the most minuscule minority ever cared to even read and ponder about it – and they happened to be the guys over at the Embassy!
The world now is eons removed from that a few decades back. But somethings haven't changed. Presidential debates are in the air again, but are we any less indifferent? The US, the largest economy in the world, is also the largest debtor. Incredibly, it also protects capitalism by enforcing its debt-funded military might. Military might is also 'might is right' in financial markets which it manipulates in the cover of restoring 'balance' and 'sense' to the markets to (ir)regularly draw money in to its coffers. Some strategy! But that's not all. For all we know, they may be funding their social security, their medicare, their 8-figure lawsuit damage awards, and even their beach-side resort insurance payouts from the global financial markets (why should the FDIC cover those mortgages?). Why do I suspect a grand conspiracy to offload the entire debt on the international community (along with global warming) just as the US shifts in to an environmentally virtuous, closed-cycle economy? If we do not wake up to these possibilities, there will be more sub-prime crises, more 'black Mondays', 'deny Wednesdays' and 'bilk you' Fridays.
Can we afford to not take cognizance of events in the US anymore? Shall we remain mute witnesses to the grandiose socialist plans of the democrats and the vain military campaigns of the republican Presidential hopefuls even as we swelter in the 100 degree heat and hope against hope that the stock market 'will bounce right back' (whereas the 'bears' are waiting for their 'breakfast, lunch and dinner')? Well, sure!, but at the risk of turning our country's billion heads servile to the consumptive urges of the US citizens for decades and centuries. Now, what's the word for that? Slavery! Right. Let us act before the US exports slavery behind capitalism worldwide. Let us participate actively in the presidential polls of the country that has been eulogized for acting as a global defender of freedom and capitalism. Pray, in what way? Thankfully, the Presidential debate preceding the polls is open and public. And in this world of instant internet connectivity, the global citizen may participate just as actively as an US citizen switching channels between the Presidential debate and 'Mundy Night Football' while partaking of Lays chips and guzzling down a 6-pack in the time it takes to kick a field goal! Write to the Presidential candidates. Voice your opinions, your thoughts, your fears and your hopes (Your agenda and your ideas too, if know how. Don't ask me. I either keep them private or put them on my blog). Let them know what you feel about their policies and budgetary plans. Tell them what they should do with Iraq today and Iran tomorrow (you know you are paying for it). Give them your priorities. Education vs missile defense system, million-dollars an hour insurance advocates vs uninsured, unvaccinated infants, landing on pluto's moon vs toilet facilities for tourists. $10 per hour baby-sitters vs unemployed US-trained Phds!
Don't worry about propriety. Or your vocabulary and grammar. Be an active citizen of the global commons. Stand for freedom, equality, a world without borders, (more than nuclear) peace, a sustainable economy, equal opportunity,.... the issues are many.
Take a stand. Your children will thank you for it.
(Read on, some commie rhetoric, notwithstanding!)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
In the days of past, The Hindu carried a column - a narrow one at that on its international page, mentioning the US presidential elections and how the candidates fared in the debate perhaps on its international page. There was no talk of it in the buses, offices or at the canteens. In fact, I suspect only the most minuscule minority ever cared to even read and ponder about it – and they happened to be the guys over at the Embassy!
The world now is eons removed from that a few decades back. But somethings haven't changed. Presidential debates are in the air again, but are we any less indifferent? The US, the largest economy in the world, is also the largest debtor. Incredibly, it also protects capitalism by enforcing its debt-funded military might. Military might is also 'might is right' in financial markets which it manipulates in the cover of restoring 'balance' and 'sense' to the markets to (ir)regularly draw money in to its coffers. Some strategy! But that's not all. For all we know, they may be funding their social security, their medicare, their 8-figure lawsuit damage awards, and even their beach-side resort insurance payouts from the global financial markets (why should the FDIC cover those mortgages?). Why do I suspect a grand conspiracy to offload the entire debt on the international community (along with global warming) just as the US shifts in to an environmentally virtuous, closed-cycle economy? If we do not wake up to these possibilities, there will be more sub-prime crises, more 'black Mondays', 'deny Wednesdays' and 'bilk you' Fridays.
Can we afford to not take cognizance of events in the US anymore? Shall we remain mute witnesses to the grandiose socialist plans of the democrats and the vain military campaigns of the republican Presidential hopefuls even as we swelter in the 100 degree heat and hope against hope that the stock market 'will bounce right back' (whereas the 'bears' are waiting for their 'breakfast, lunch and dinner')? Well, sure!, but at the risk of turning our country's billion heads servile to the consumptive urges of the US citizens for decades and centuries. Now, what's the word for that? Slavery! Right. Let us act before the US exports slavery behind capitalism worldwide. Let us participate actively in the presidential polls of the country that has been eulogized for acting as a global defender of freedom and capitalism. Pray, in what way? Thankfully, the Presidential debate preceding the polls is open and public. And in this world of instant internet connectivity, the global citizen may participate just as actively as an US citizen switching channels between the Presidential debate and 'Mundy Night Football' while partaking of Lays chips and guzzling down a 6-pack in the time it takes to kick a field goal! Write to the Presidential candidates. Voice your opinions, your thoughts, your fears and your hopes (Your agenda and your ideas too, if know how. Don't ask me. I either keep them private or put them on my blog). Let them know what you feel about their policies and budgetary plans. Tell them what they should do with Iraq today and Iran tomorrow (you know you are paying for it). Give them your priorities. Education vs missile defense system, million-dollars an hour insurance advocates vs uninsured, unvaccinated infants, landing on pluto's moon vs toilet facilities for tourists. $10 per hour baby-sitters vs unemployed US-trained Phds!
Don't worry about propriety. Or your vocabulary and grammar. Be an active citizen of the global commons. Stand for freedom, equality, a world without borders, (more than nuclear) peace, a sustainable economy, equal opportunity,.... the issues are many.
Take a stand. Your children will thank you for it.
Wednesday, August 22, 2007
Two Cents for My Idle Thoughts
Two Cents for My Idle Thoughts?
(You are, by now, used to my usual disclaimers!)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
- Like whether foreign governments who stand to benefit from a warmer climate are promoting expansion of coal-based power and power-sector deregulation in poor and populated, but coal-rich nations to achieve their goals (while claiming to further Millenium Development Goals!)...??? (India can go nuclear when the Antarctic has been colonized!!)
– Like whether the US will invade 'Iran' as a face-saver to cover its 'withdrawal' from Iraq and whether the invasion of Iran is a thinly-veiled strategy to eventually confront Russia in a world-war by moving in to oil-rich Kazhakstan/Azerbaijan on behalf of the Saudis?
– Like whether the entire sub-prime crisis is a cleverly-thought out cover for arranging 'energy security' payment from Saudi Arabia (through German and Japanese Banks) for the protection provided to them by US not only from Iran and Iraqi elements, but also from competition to oil from emerging nuclear technology and gas – no thanks to the talks of a fledgling 'gas cartel' formed by anti-capitalist/anti-American countries including Russia, Venezuela, Algeria and Indonesia (on Forbes.com sometime in April)?
– Like, whether coal got the better of gas by not reacting to the lure of a 'cartel' despite the pressures of global warming....?????
– Like, you guessed it, whether gas and nuclear power (including thorium power) is being suppressed for another three decades of a 'fossil fuel' super-cycle (if we have to spend billions on cooling the earth, might as well scorch it first!)?
– Like the developing countries might just agree to a decades-long investment in the stock market plan as a compensation for agreeing to a 'no emissions reductions' deal with the rich countries. (Let global warming warm the poor on cold nights while I enjoy my capital appreciation in a jacuzzi!)
– Whether global financial systems are being systematically manipulated to get away with engineered bankruptcies? (That's one default in a thousand over the past two years. Surely you can live with it!)
– Like, we (at least in India) are silently and subtly, breaking in to two classes – the rich, and the brash on one side and the poor, educated, 'meek' and disciplined on the other?
– Whether political parties put up a show of public opposition to various matters after making under the table deals prior to the drama?
– Whether the recent multi-billion international fund launched by Sundaram BNP doubled up as a convenient tool to siphon away the booty before the government fell and the commies took over? (and whether some of the DLF/Everonn IPO 'blackshoe' money found its way in to this fund?)
– Whether the fumigation program has reduced the mosquito population by even a millionth (and whether the targets are mosquitoes or the 'pests at work/home' among us)?
– Whether the dollar exchange rate will slide all the way down to Rs 8 a dollar eventually – as the country advances – the exchange rate in the early eighties?
– Like, how polluted Chennai would be, if we were not blessed by the diurnal sea breeze (and would I be alive to write about it!)
– Like, the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has reduced drastically over the past decade (we should try to relate it to the sun-spot activity before suspecting global warming! - though warmer surface temperatures are supposed spawn more cyclones)
– What happens to the funds in the 'Fund Reserves' category mentioned in the Annual Report of Mutual Funds. Surely, it is not transferred to the 'Investor Protection and Education Fund' and thenceforth to your financial advisor/agent/shoppe? (and you thought your agent was a fool to share his commission with you!!!)
– How does the US reconcile all the millions of 'foreign aid' it disburses to various nations over the years when it does not pay its dues to the UN and runs a trillion dollar deficit. Foreigners must be pretty darn important to the US, or, .....God help us!!!
– Whether the flyash-based cement measures up to technical strength requirements or is inappropriately used in engineering constructions and whether they will give way in the manner of the Minneapolis bridge?
– Whatever happens to the crores of 'river cleanup' funds that are announced every few years. The Cooum isn't getting any prettier or less nauseous. (and we frolic not a couple hundred meters away on the Marina beach.)
– Whether hedge funds and investment houses coordinate action (with the tacit support or knowledge of the government) to precipitate financial 'crisis' in the stock markets. Times of crisis and panic that induce price volatility can only help the well-informed and the well-endowed, not to mention those with access to resources.
– Whether capitalism turns every God-given necessity (air, water, wilderness, etc) in to a luxury meant only for the enjoyment of those who subscribe to its philosophy????
– And finally, whether it matters to turn richer in an absolute sense when the world of recreation and luxury is only available to those wealthy on a relative basis.
Think about it (and leave the yellow journalism to me!)
(You are, by now, used to my usual disclaimers!)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
- Like whether foreign governments who stand to benefit from a warmer climate are promoting expansion of coal-based power and power-sector deregulation in poor and populated, but coal-rich nations to achieve their goals (while claiming to further Millenium Development Goals!)...??? (India can go nuclear when the Antarctic has been colonized!!)
– Like whether the US will invade 'Iran' as a face-saver to cover its 'withdrawal' from Iraq and whether the invasion of Iran is a thinly-veiled strategy to eventually confront Russia in a world-war by moving in to oil-rich Kazhakstan/Azerbaijan on behalf of the Saudis?
– Like whether the entire sub-prime crisis is a cleverly-thought out cover for arranging 'energy security' payment from Saudi Arabia (through German and Japanese Banks) for the protection provided to them by US not only from Iran and Iraqi elements, but also from competition to oil from emerging nuclear technology and gas – no thanks to the talks of a fledgling 'gas cartel' formed by anti-capitalist/anti-American countries including Russia, Venezuela, Algeria and Indonesia (on Forbes.com sometime in April)?
– Like, whether coal got the better of gas by not reacting to the lure of a 'cartel' despite the pressures of global warming....?????
– Like, you guessed it, whether gas and nuclear power (including thorium power) is being suppressed for another three decades of a 'fossil fuel' super-cycle (if we have to spend billions on cooling the earth, might as well scorch it first!)?
– Like the developing countries might just agree to a decades-long investment in the stock market plan as a compensation for agreeing to a 'no emissions reductions' deal with the rich countries. (Let global warming warm the poor on cold nights while I enjoy my capital appreciation in a jacuzzi!)
– Whether global financial systems are being systematically manipulated to get away with engineered bankruptcies? (That's one default in a thousand over the past two years. Surely you can live with it!)
– Like, we (at least in India) are silently and subtly, breaking in to two classes – the rich, and the brash on one side and the poor, educated, 'meek' and disciplined on the other?
– Whether political parties put up a show of public opposition to various matters after making under the table deals prior to the drama?
– Whether the recent multi-billion international fund launched by Sundaram BNP doubled up as a convenient tool to siphon away the booty before the government fell and the commies took over? (and whether some of the DLF/Everonn IPO 'blackshoe' money found its way in to this fund?)
– Whether the fumigation program has reduced the mosquito population by even a millionth (and whether the targets are mosquitoes or the 'pests at work/home' among us)?
– Whether the dollar exchange rate will slide all the way down to Rs 8 a dollar eventually – as the country advances – the exchange rate in the early eighties?
– Like, how polluted Chennai would be, if we were not blessed by the diurnal sea breeze (and would I be alive to write about it!)
– Like, the number of cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has reduced drastically over the past decade (we should try to relate it to the sun-spot activity before suspecting global warming! - though warmer surface temperatures are supposed spawn more cyclones)
– What happens to the funds in the 'Fund Reserves' category mentioned in the Annual Report of Mutual Funds. Surely, it is not transferred to the 'Investor Protection and Education Fund' and thenceforth to your financial advisor/agent/shoppe? (and you thought your agent was a fool to share his commission with you!!!)
– How does the US reconcile all the millions of 'foreign aid' it disburses to various nations over the years when it does not pay its dues to the UN and runs a trillion dollar deficit. Foreigners must be pretty darn important to the US, or, .....God help us!!!
– Whether the flyash-based cement measures up to technical strength requirements or is inappropriately used in engineering constructions and whether they will give way in the manner of the Minneapolis bridge?
– Whatever happens to the crores of 'river cleanup' funds that are announced every few years. The Cooum isn't getting any prettier or less nauseous. (and we frolic not a couple hundred meters away on the Marina beach.)
– Whether hedge funds and investment houses coordinate action (with the tacit support or knowledge of the government) to precipitate financial 'crisis' in the stock markets. Times of crisis and panic that induce price volatility can only help the well-informed and the well-endowed, not to mention those with access to resources.
– Whether capitalism turns every God-given necessity (air, water, wilderness, etc) in to a luxury meant only for the enjoyment of those who subscribe to its philosophy????
– And finally, whether it matters to turn richer in an absolute sense when the world of recreation and luxury is only available to those wealthy on a relative basis.
Think about it (and leave the yellow journalism to me!)
Friday, August 17, 2007
The Independence Day Speech Our Prime Minister Did Not Give!
The Independence Day Speech Our Prime Minister Did Not Give!
(A lighthearted parody with no malice and no truth whatsoever)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Fellow Citizens, My greetings to you (and heartfelt sympathies too!). As I stand before you on this august morning (feels like a June afternoon), I cannot but reminisce of the times when I first took charge of the Finance Ministry (they called me 'too meek' to handle Defence). Back then, India was in a boom following the reforms undertaken by Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao. The mood was resurgent and India prospered despite the Asian financial crisis. Today, India is growing at a healthy pace on all fronts (well, if you discount Mining and Agriculture, morals and discipline, courtesy and kindness, and a sustainable future). With abundant rains this monsoon (and despite our misguided policies), our economy is poised for takeoff.
On the Policy front, my government has paid utmost attention to price stability. By controlling inflation with 'supply-side' and 'demand-side' measures, we have managed to contain inflation even while the economy advances at near double-digit growth rates. We have imported wheat and restrained exports of milk products to contain retail price inflation (while ensuring you have less take-home pay by raising home interest loan rates to bleed your pockets). For the benefit of the poor, we have continued the subsidy on power and fertilizers even if it means contorting the economy in ways even my students cannot model in their micro classes! (Subsidy, my foot! In truth, even calling it 'free' power is a misnomer; we make a loss for every unit supplied to agricultural pumpsets. And as for the fertilizers, just look at how the stock market is salivating at the prospect of additional subsidies. Need I say more?). For the benefit of the middle-class, this government took pains to hold back prices of automotive fuels even if it meant forcing heavy losses on Oil PSUs (in exchange for some 'nominal rearrangement' in the allocation of oil and gas exploration blocks!). We have created a National Investment Fund that serves as a repository for all PSU disinvestment proceedings. It is your government's resolve to fund social welfare programs from this fund (Actually, with the leftovers in this fund after investing in power sector in which private firms and FIIs are invested and placating the left with, how should I put this, 'margin money'!). The roaring stock market is a testimony to the success of our policies (Never mind that the stock market has been taken over by foreign investors, who bleed and hijack the nation at regular intervals! By the way, I do hope you make hay while the sun shines. The billions of rupees of oil bonds we issued are due for redemption in a few years. That's when you will face the music.) I am sure that my ministers, including my coalition partners stand ready to accept the policy challenge to guide this nation forward.
Your Government has made significant progress in social welfare programs. We now fund construction of rural roads and schools as well as free medicines to women, children and the aged. (Quite a deal for their votes, don't you think?) In cooperation with state governments, we have pension programs for porters, beggars, and the unorganized labor sector (We are planning one for the educated but perennially unemployed!). Our commitment to gender equality in politics is evident in the election of the first lady President of India (In this country, nominating one lady to a higher post is more economical to entrenched male incumbents than a hundred to the Lok Sabha!). Much has been made of the Narmada, SEZ and the Nandigram issues. It is true that development sometimes exacts a price on our resources and our people. But these projects are likely to bring in perennial employment and revenues to the nation. (Never mind, that land was given away for free or at a pittance. And to cap it, we offered a 10-20 year tax-exemption window). I appeal to those displaced to cooperate in the spirit of patriotism to build a modern, industrialized India. (Surely, I cannot ask the industry to pay for the dislocated? After all, the projects are meant for the poor!).
We have always sided with the small rural farmer. Beside supplying power free of cost, we are investing lakhs of crores in inter-basin river-linking projects that will improve irrigation water supply for farmers. (What's your question? Which cement company will benefit the most? How'd I know? We haven't discussed that yet. Oops!). Believe me, the 'cost-effectiveness' of these projects passes our government's threshold (which was made up by Laluji as he walked along the corridors of his office!). I assure you, these projects will bring the waters of the Ganges to the Kaveri and the waters of Brahmaputra to the Thar within your child's lifetime ( that they are contaminated with floating corpses and sewage should not worry you much. There may also be jurisdictional disputes, but then, so long as you beg for your 'quota', our seasoned politicians will negotiate the same on your behalf).
I take pride in informing you that this government has consistently supported environmental initiatives. I laud the smoke-free Chandigarh initiative and hope other cities will follow suit. (errr... who wrote this stuff? I hope 'Tobacco' isn't one of our campaign contributor). We have released funds for the cleaning up of lakes and rivers (Whoa! Really? Perhaps some of our contractors are ready to be milked!), enforced pollution regulations strictly (Ha Ha Ha Ha Ho Ho Ho Ho!..... )... Excuse me, I have a bad cough!!... and supported Project Tiger (Mercy! I thought the GEF or a foreign Oil Major funded it thru the MoEF?). I am sure, with your help (ie, if you stay indoors or don't mind the 'desi' odors and outdoors), we can overcome all hurdles in our path to environmental sustainability. (My! I hope that was easy to digest!)
I also take this occasion to share with my fellow citizens this government's resolve to stand tall against global pressure to abdicate and tow the line as regards global climate change and emissions reductions. While we stand ready to cooperate with international agencies with regard to containing global warming (our dual-strategy to simultaneously adopt and delay clean technology/fossil fuels as appropriate, is paying off. Just look at carbon credits notched up by our industry!), no country shall dictate terms to us (How can they? We have already sold out to the US!). Many have criticized the nuclear agreement with the US as one that denies us our sovereign rights to reprocessing and national security decisions. Despite what my detractors would say (that it is a 'fairweather deal'), I personally assure you that my government has the best interest of our country in signing the nuclear deal with the US. (In fact, we are so patriotic that we have sold out our thorium technology to the anti-global warming powers behind the scene in exchange for excluding us from any binding carbon emissions reductions plan! Two birds with one stone, and not just for us. The US and Australia too benefit in this political triangle. Interns in politics, note how we designed the 'trikona' strategy and camouflaged the 'technology transfer' in patriotism!....And you say experience does not matter?)
As we look forward to the completion of our first term in office, I commend the cooperation of all coalition partners in the smooth functioning of the government and thank them for the same. (Damn, the lies one has to utter to stay in power! In truth, our coalition partners have robbed me of my powers and made a mockery of the economist in me). Today, our economy stands at the cross-roads of time. Let us not forget the sacrifices made by our freedom-fighters, our armed forces and past leaders of the nation. Let us together fight the forces of division, deceit and suppression and carry the nation to glory envisioned by Vivekananda, Tagore, Nehru, Gandhi, Rao, Vajpayee, ..... (Boy, am I short of breath. Surely, it's not the morning mist hanging in the air?).
Glory to be God! (or as we say in this land of mysticism, Kali da jawab nahi!)
Jai Hind!
(Now, where is that speechwriter of mine?)
(A lighthearted parody with no malice and no truth whatsoever)
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Fellow Citizens, My greetings to you (and heartfelt sympathies too!). As I stand before you on this august morning (feels like a June afternoon), I cannot but reminisce of the times when I first took charge of the Finance Ministry (they called me 'too meek' to handle Defence). Back then, India was in a boom following the reforms undertaken by Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao. The mood was resurgent and India prospered despite the Asian financial crisis. Today, India is growing at a healthy pace on all fronts (well, if you discount Mining and Agriculture, morals and discipline, courtesy and kindness, and a sustainable future). With abundant rains this monsoon (and despite our misguided policies), our economy is poised for takeoff.
On the Policy front, my government has paid utmost attention to price stability. By controlling inflation with 'supply-side' and 'demand-side' measures, we have managed to contain inflation even while the economy advances at near double-digit growth rates. We have imported wheat and restrained exports of milk products to contain retail price inflation (while ensuring you have less take-home pay by raising home interest loan rates to bleed your pockets). For the benefit of the poor, we have continued the subsidy on power and fertilizers even if it means contorting the economy in ways even my students cannot model in their micro classes! (Subsidy, my foot! In truth, even calling it 'free' power is a misnomer; we make a loss for every unit supplied to agricultural pumpsets. And as for the fertilizers, just look at how the stock market is salivating at the prospect of additional subsidies. Need I say more?). For the benefit of the middle-class, this government took pains to hold back prices of automotive fuels even if it meant forcing heavy losses on Oil PSUs (in exchange for some 'nominal rearrangement' in the allocation of oil and gas exploration blocks!). We have created a National Investment Fund that serves as a repository for all PSU disinvestment proceedings. It is your government's resolve to fund social welfare programs from this fund (Actually, with the leftovers in this fund after investing in power sector in which private firms and FIIs are invested and placating the left with, how should I put this, 'margin money'!). The roaring stock market is a testimony to the success of our policies (Never mind that the stock market has been taken over by foreign investors, who bleed and hijack the nation at regular intervals! By the way, I do hope you make hay while the sun shines. The billions of rupees of oil bonds we issued are due for redemption in a few years. That's when you will face the music.) I am sure that my ministers, including my coalition partners stand ready to accept the policy challenge to guide this nation forward.
Your Government has made significant progress in social welfare programs. We now fund construction of rural roads and schools as well as free medicines to women, children and the aged. (Quite a deal for their votes, don't you think?) In cooperation with state governments, we have pension programs for porters, beggars, and the unorganized labor sector (We are planning one for the educated but perennially unemployed!). Our commitment to gender equality in politics is evident in the election of the first lady President of India (In this country, nominating one lady to a higher post is more economical to entrenched male incumbents than a hundred to the Lok Sabha!). Much has been made of the Narmada, SEZ and the Nandigram issues. It is true that development sometimes exacts a price on our resources and our people. But these projects are likely to bring in perennial employment and revenues to the nation. (Never mind, that land was given away for free or at a pittance. And to cap it, we offered a 10-20 year tax-exemption window). I appeal to those displaced to cooperate in the spirit of patriotism to build a modern, industrialized India. (Surely, I cannot ask the industry to pay for the dislocated? After all, the projects are meant for the poor!).
We have always sided with the small rural farmer. Beside supplying power free of cost, we are investing lakhs of crores in inter-basin river-linking projects that will improve irrigation water supply for farmers. (What's your question? Which cement company will benefit the most? How'd I know? We haven't discussed that yet. Oops!). Believe me, the 'cost-effectiveness' of these projects passes our government's threshold (which was made up by Laluji as he walked along the corridors of his office!). I assure you, these projects will bring the waters of the Ganges to the Kaveri and the waters of Brahmaputra to the Thar within your child's lifetime ( that they are contaminated with floating corpses and sewage should not worry you much. There may also be jurisdictional disputes, but then, so long as you beg for your 'quota', our seasoned politicians will negotiate the same on your behalf).
I take pride in informing you that this government has consistently supported environmental initiatives. I laud the smoke-free Chandigarh initiative and hope other cities will follow suit. (errr... who wrote this stuff? I hope 'Tobacco' isn't one of our campaign contributor). We have released funds for the cleaning up of lakes and rivers (Whoa! Really? Perhaps some of our contractors are ready to be milked!), enforced pollution regulations strictly (Ha Ha Ha Ha Ho Ho Ho Ho!..... )... Excuse me, I have a bad cough!!... and supported Project Tiger (Mercy! I thought the GEF or a foreign Oil Major funded it thru the MoEF?). I am sure, with your help (ie, if you stay indoors or don't mind the 'desi' odors and outdoors), we can overcome all hurdles in our path to environmental sustainability. (My! I hope that was easy to digest!)
I also take this occasion to share with my fellow citizens this government's resolve to stand tall against global pressure to abdicate and tow the line as regards global climate change and emissions reductions. While we stand ready to cooperate with international agencies with regard to containing global warming (our dual-strategy to simultaneously adopt and delay clean technology/fossil fuels as appropriate, is paying off. Just look at carbon credits notched up by our industry!), no country shall dictate terms to us (How can they? We have already sold out to the US!). Many have criticized the nuclear agreement with the US as one that denies us our sovereign rights to reprocessing and national security decisions. Despite what my detractors would say (that it is a 'fairweather deal'), I personally assure you that my government has the best interest of our country in signing the nuclear deal with the US. (In fact, we are so patriotic that we have sold out our thorium technology to the anti-global warming powers behind the scene in exchange for excluding us from any binding carbon emissions reductions plan! Two birds with one stone, and not just for us. The US and Australia too benefit in this political triangle. Interns in politics, note how we designed the 'trikona' strategy and camouflaged the 'technology transfer' in patriotism!....And you say experience does not matter?)
As we look forward to the completion of our first term in office, I commend the cooperation of all coalition partners in the smooth functioning of the government and thank them for the same. (Damn, the lies one has to utter to stay in power! In truth, our coalition partners have robbed me of my powers and made a mockery of the economist in me). Today, our economy stands at the cross-roads of time. Let us not forget the sacrifices made by our freedom-fighters, our armed forces and past leaders of the nation. Let us together fight the forces of division, deceit and suppression and carry the nation to glory envisioned by Vivekananda, Tagore, Nehru, Gandhi, Rao, Vajpayee, ..... (Boy, am I short of breath. Surely, it's not the morning mist hanging in the air?).
Glory to be God! (or as we say in this land of mysticism, Kali da jawab nahi!)
Jai Hind!
(Now, where is that speechwriter of mine?)
Monday, August 6, 2007
Election Planks, Sickles, Cycles and Cows
Election Planks, Sickles, Cycles and Cows
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
For those of you who follow Krugman, his gingerly entry in to electoral politics would not have gone unnoticed. I have no such fears of writing on the matter, much as a career politician would feel no qualms about opining on abstruse policy matters involving specialized knowledge of disciplines. So, having graduated in Mineral Economics, I step in, albeit gingerly, in to 'Political Yellow Journalism'!
When I joined school, Gandhi was still a household name, what with the memory of the freedom struggle still fresh in the minds of parents. With the passage of time, the freedom struggle has largely receded from politics, but for its 'heritage value' during campaigning. The Gandhis, the Nehrus and the Kamarajs now merely adorn the party banners. Following their ideals would be harakiri!. But that is symptomatic of a larger problem – that of election issues, promises and manifestos. These used to be the channels through which parties and candidates perceived issues of interest among the electorate, learnt of their needs and priorities and through which they communicated their agenda to the masses. No longer; now, they merely serve as instruments to gain familiarity with voters and communicate positions and deals on various issues.
As I perceive it, there are three levels at which pre-election deals/promises are made – privately with wealthy bigwigs from the industry, and sometimes, international organizations, publicly through newspapers and media with the middle-class and the intelligentia, and separately with the poor masses through local community leaders or mafia bosses. But it is the votes of the masses that counts on the D-day, and that means wooing the poor and the middle classes. It may be that many of the married poor have already been bought out by rival parties who sponsor their ration card or employment, their freedom from the hands of law or the land on which they live. Those not in this 'net' are bought out by promised a certain amount of 'music' broadcast by loudspeakers attached to autorickshaws sporting the candidate and his/her party logo. The youth among the poor are likely already rounded up by our local activists. That leaves the educated middle-class who are too smart to profess unending loyalty and yet gullible enough to buy a straight-faced lie. What combination of election promises will appease them? First the retired – an important constituency, who, bitten by the patriotic bug, cast their votes without fail (they even show up at the booth before voting begins!). Perhaps they will identify with historical leaders of repute and character. In any case, the promise of a 10% rate on their provident fund ought to placate them; never mind the deficit. Now for the working class. Hmm, what do we here? A 111th pay commission to look in to their salary structure? That should keep them expecting a few years. What about women? (Damn, they won't follow their husbands. That would have cut costs in half!) Equal opportunity? No, that could be costly. Why not a quota or a reservation instead. 20% reservation for women in white collar jobs. How does that sound? .....Not bad! That leaves the yuppy youth on motorbikes drawing inflated salaries. You sure they'll be awake by the time voting winds up? Try a mid-day SMS alarm in to their mobiles on voting day. Follow it up with an invitation to a post-election party at 5pm. That might do the trick. That does it.
Now that all bases are covered, (that should get us the 25% vote needed to win the ballot) it's time to move on and plan for the post-election. Time to plan strategy for cornering ministerial posts, plum boardroom assignments, stake out licenses and commissions of inquiry, .....
A politicians life is very demanding...... Indeed!
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
For those of you who follow Krugman, his gingerly entry in to electoral politics would not have gone unnoticed. I have no such fears of writing on the matter, much as a career politician would feel no qualms about opining on abstruse policy matters involving specialized knowledge of disciplines. So, having graduated in Mineral Economics, I step in, albeit gingerly, in to 'Political Yellow Journalism'!
When I joined school, Gandhi was still a household name, what with the memory of the freedom struggle still fresh in the minds of parents. With the passage of time, the freedom struggle has largely receded from politics, but for its 'heritage value' during campaigning. The Gandhis, the Nehrus and the Kamarajs now merely adorn the party banners. Following their ideals would be harakiri!. But that is symptomatic of a larger problem – that of election issues, promises and manifestos. These used to be the channels through which parties and candidates perceived issues of interest among the electorate, learnt of their needs and priorities and through which they communicated their agenda to the masses. No longer; now, they merely serve as instruments to gain familiarity with voters and communicate positions and deals on various issues.
As I perceive it, there are three levels at which pre-election deals/promises are made – privately with wealthy bigwigs from the industry, and sometimes, international organizations, publicly through newspapers and media with the middle-class and the intelligentia, and separately with the poor masses through local community leaders or mafia bosses. But it is the votes of the masses that counts on the D-day, and that means wooing the poor and the middle classes. It may be that many of the married poor have already been bought out by rival parties who sponsor their ration card or employment, their freedom from the hands of law or the land on which they live. Those not in this 'net' are bought out by promised a certain amount of 'music' broadcast by loudspeakers attached to autorickshaws sporting the candidate and his/her party logo. The youth among the poor are likely already rounded up by our local activists. That leaves the educated middle-class who are too smart to profess unending loyalty and yet gullible enough to buy a straight-faced lie. What combination of election promises will appease them? First the retired – an important constituency, who, bitten by the patriotic bug, cast their votes without fail (they even show up at the booth before voting begins!). Perhaps they will identify with historical leaders of repute and character. In any case, the promise of a 10% rate on their provident fund ought to placate them; never mind the deficit. Now for the working class. Hmm, what do we here? A 111th pay commission to look in to their salary structure? That should keep them expecting a few years. What about women? (Damn, they won't follow their husbands. That would have cut costs in half!) Equal opportunity? No, that could be costly. Why not a quota or a reservation instead. 20% reservation for women in white collar jobs. How does that sound? .....Not bad! That leaves the yuppy youth on motorbikes drawing inflated salaries. You sure they'll be awake by the time voting winds up? Try a mid-day SMS alarm in to their mobiles on voting day. Follow it up with an invitation to a post-election party at 5pm. That might do the trick. That does it.
Now that all bases are covered, (that should get us the 25% vote needed to win the ballot) it's time to move on and plan for the post-election. Time to plan strategy for cornering ministerial posts, plum boardroom assignments, stake out licenses and commissions of inquiry, .....
A politicians life is very demanding...... Indeed!
Sunday, August 5, 2007
Economist's Nightmare, Environmentalist's Delight?
Globalize Power Generation to Abate Global Warming
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Just yesterday, at www.livemint.com, I opined against India's voluntary involvement in any carbon reduction proposal. Clearly, as a country, India cannot afford to hold back the millions of its citizens in abject poverty to assuage the feelings of the developed world who conveniently forgot for decades that CO2 emissions turn the earth warmer. But, climate change will not stop for India, or for that matter, any other country. It has been gathering steam all these years and decades and now, alarmingly, it seems to be accelerating. We must reduce CO2 concentrations, and that too within a short period of time. 15 years post Kyoto, we have achieved little. Some, me included, would contend that the wave of privatization and competition in various economies and especially the power sector, has set us back and moved the world closer to an environmental catastrophe. Perhaps Kyoto has served its purpose of enriching dirty capitalists while we waited for it to deliver an environmental miracle!
Now that the group of nations is gathered to consider a new emissions reduction plan, I cannot but muse about its prospects. Surely, we do not want to learn five decades from now that we used the wrong criterion or permitted an unwise loophole or two, did not anticipate emissions from new service industries or did not include a certain sub-clause in exchange for a week's vacation in the Virgin Islands! We want a solution that obtains real physical reduction in CO2 emissions and concentrations within a decade. Can the new protocol deliver this? I fear not. Is there an alternate plan short of nuclear winter? Well, let's explore one. A solution very different from the one would unfold with the adoption of a new global treaty. No, it is most definitely not an economist's solution (I’d almost distance myself from it!). In fact, far from it, it is an 'apocalypse tomorrow' kind of solution; one that takes a dark view of what has already occurred and prescribes a draconian solution by a benevolent environmental dictator.
We know coal capacity constitutes over 70% of total power generation globally and is responsible for about a third of global GHG emissions. We know coal is very polluting, regardless of the type of technology used to convert it to power. We also know China and India are building thermal plants faster than rabbits multiply (and the US, not to be outdone, is adding some of its own!). No one builds a thermal plant to operate for an year, two or a decade. A super-size mine-mouth thermal plant built on the coal reserves of an entire mine, emits CO2 for three decades or more. By the time, the negotiations conclude and the countries endorse the new protocol in their elected body of representatives, it would be another decade and glaciology would be discipline of the past world! The good news though, is we have plenty of gas and plenty of thorium across the world to sustain power generation for a couple of decades or more (though, the thorium-power technology developed by India is being 'postponed' thirty years. No, there is no link to the '123' nuclear agreement with the US or the ongoing global warming negotiations). If climate change is already upon us (behold the shrinking glaciers and extreme weather events), should we not act today (when we should have acted yesterday)?
Much of the electrified world is connected through grids across regions, even continents. We could go a step beyond nationalization and 'globalize' power generation and put it under common ownership. Then, as an emergency measure, we could completely do away with coal-based power generation for a few decades; power would be exclusively generated from hydro, gas, wind and nuclear stations. It'd be necessary to open up gas fields and ramp up gas production (Have a look at global gas reserves and you will get my point) and require gas production to be diverted to power generation almost by a decree. Gas would be preferentially supplied to power stations around the world at rates determined by the amount of existing regional gas generation capacity (granted there would be monopsony pricing power, but gas is assured a market). Power consuming 'blocs' could then put in their bids for supply of 'green power' from this 'globalized' electricity network. Prices may be twice as high regionally, but demand would be satisfied. As for coal suppliers, they could be compensated at the rate of half a cent per KWH that they were excluded from generating as of a certain baseline date.
What good would it do? True, a large part of the generating capacity is coal-based. But the fuel-flexible fraction of that capacity could be converted to gas immediately. The rest would need to be retrofitted to accommodate gas – something that can be achieved within a few years, if there is political will (The mine-mouth power plants could be converted to mine-mouth iron and steel plants!). This achieved, we could exclude coal from thermal stations, reducing emissions by a quarter almost 'overnight'. CO2 concentration, now on an inexorable upward trend, would pause within a decade. Longer-term technological advances and capital retirement, obsolescence and turnover would reinforce the environmental gains and, hopefully, reverse the emissions trend beyond 2020. Fifty years down the road, when CO2 concentrations have been halved, environmental lessons truly learned and the world environmentally and technologically advanced, one could reconsider coal as a fuel in all its end-uses.
An economist's nightmare, but an environmentalist's delight?
Ganga Prasad G. Rao
http://myprofile.cos.com/gangar
Just yesterday, at www.livemint.com, I opined against India's voluntary involvement in any carbon reduction proposal. Clearly, as a country, India cannot afford to hold back the millions of its citizens in abject poverty to assuage the feelings of the developed world who conveniently forgot for decades that CO2 emissions turn the earth warmer. But, climate change will not stop for India, or for that matter, any other country. It has been gathering steam all these years and decades and now, alarmingly, it seems to be accelerating. We must reduce CO2 concentrations, and that too within a short period of time. 15 years post Kyoto, we have achieved little. Some, me included, would contend that the wave of privatization and competition in various economies and especially the power sector, has set us back and moved the world closer to an environmental catastrophe. Perhaps Kyoto has served its purpose of enriching dirty capitalists while we waited for it to deliver an environmental miracle!
Now that the group of nations is gathered to consider a new emissions reduction plan, I cannot but muse about its prospects. Surely, we do not want to learn five decades from now that we used the wrong criterion or permitted an unwise loophole or two, did not anticipate emissions from new service industries or did not include a certain sub-clause in exchange for a week's vacation in the Virgin Islands! We want a solution that obtains real physical reduction in CO2 emissions and concentrations within a decade. Can the new protocol deliver this? I fear not. Is there an alternate plan short of nuclear winter? Well, let's explore one. A solution very different from the one would unfold with the adoption of a new global treaty. No, it is most definitely not an economist's solution (I’d almost distance myself from it!). In fact, far from it, it is an 'apocalypse tomorrow' kind of solution; one that takes a dark view of what has already occurred and prescribes a draconian solution by a benevolent environmental dictator.
We know coal capacity constitutes over 70% of total power generation globally and is responsible for about a third of global GHG emissions. We know coal is very polluting, regardless of the type of technology used to convert it to power. We also know China and India are building thermal plants faster than rabbits multiply (and the US, not to be outdone, is adding some of its own!). No one builds a thermal plant to operate for an year, two or a decade. A super-size mine-mouth thermal plant built on the coal reserves of an entire mine, emits CO2 for three decades or more. By the time, the negotiations conclude and the countries endorse the new protocol in their elected body of representatives, it would be another decade and glaciology would be discipline of the past world! The good news though, is we have plenty of gas and plenty of thorium across the world to sustain power generation for a couple of decades or more (though, the thorium-power technology developed by India is being 'postponed' thirty years. No, there is no link to the '123' nuclear agreement with the US or the ongoing global warming negotiations). If climate change is already upon us (behold the shrinking glaciers and extreme weather events), should we not act today (when we should have acted yesterday)?
Much of the electrified world is connected through grids across regions, even continents. We could go a step beyond nationalization and 'globalize' power generation and put it under common ownership. Then, as an emergency measure, we could completely do away with coal-based power generation for a few decades; power would be exclusively generated from hydro, gas, wind and nuclear stations. It'd be necessary to open up gas fields and ramp up gas production (Have a look at global gas reserves and you will get my point) and require gas production to be diverted to power generation almost by a decree. Gas would be preferentially supplied to power stations around the world at rates determined by the amount of existing regional gas generation capacity (granted there would be monopsony pricing power, but gas is assured a market). Power consuming 'blocs' could then put in their bids for supply of 'green power' from this 'globalized' electricity network. Prices may be twice as high regionally, but demand would be satisfied. As for coal suppliers, they could be compensated at the rate of half a cent per KWH that they were excluded from generating as of a certain baseline date.
What good would it do? True, a large part of the generating capacity is coal-based. But the fuel-flexible fraction of that capacity could be converted to gas immediately. The rest would need to be retrofitted to accommodate gas – something that can be achieved within a few years, if there is political will (The mine-mouth power plants could be converted to mine-mouth iron and steel plants!). This achieved, we could exclude coal from thermal stations, reducing emissions by a quarter almost 'overnight'. CO2 concentration, now on an inexorable upward trend, would pause within a decade. Longer-term technological advances and capital retirement, obsolescence and turnover would reinforce the environmental gains and, hopefully, reverse the emissions trend beyond 2020. Fifty years down the road, when CO2 concentrations have been halved, environmental lessons truly learned and the world environmentally and technologically advanced, one could reconsider coal as a fuel in all its end-uses.
An economist's nightmare, but an environmentalist's delight?
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